Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

I don't understand that comment gf, the share price was 22p at the end of October!! Are you sure you're on the right thread here?

Yep.

Dont forget it was 123p and RISING just a week or so ago.

Suppose its just frustration and the wallys over the road on the TCG threads that are getting on my ti-s.

Only stock I have had down since xmas this one.

Think itl still turn around but this cyprus thingy is a worry short term.

Warren Buffet said something along the lines that making money out of the stock market was all about "the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient". ( I stand to be corrected on the exact wording of that quote .) And the Cyprus scenario is todays news and tomorrows fish and chips paper - after all it's the Russians and the mafia that have most of the money invested in banks in Cyprus.

I thought this was a great comment from onething on another bulletin board re the RNS today;

"If ever you have a need to sell sand to Arabs, or even snow to Eskimos, clearly Harriet is your gal. 86m of loss, and they paid her to take it away! Wonderful."

DB I know all about Warren Buffet and his side kick Charlie Munger having been in this business for 32 years and I do know they last year went into CFDS for shorter term trades. The Warren Buffet story today is a totaly different story from that of 10 to 15 years ago or that portrayed by longer term investors.

I dont trade the company TCG nor do I trade any other company, I actually trade the companys stock and as such shorter time frame periods to me are more important than the day to day runing of the company as per the investors profile.

As such 'Opportunity Cost' plays a big part in my personal trading profile.

Ive gone both long short long again and will probably be short at some time again in the future.

Dont forget ive been in here at temporary tops and bottoms as the stock as ranged and trended since I started the thread in 2010.

cheers GF.

Each to his own gf. If you have been down on this stock since Xmas I would think you must have been getting something wrong. It's not easy to short stocks in a bull market and I noticed that Sothic Capital reduced their short position in TCG twice last week.

No I havent been short of the stock since late sept when it hit the 200 MA and fell although the trade was a dud and I reversed.

Like you say we have differing time periods and goals.

One of Warren Buffets other favourite sayings is 'never fall in love with a stock', and Im pretty good with that not having any emotional attachment to any stock, call me callous, hard, insensitive, whatever but it works for me and Ive been rewarded handsomely.

For the time being Im on the bull side and I wish you and everyone good luck.

Looks like we got that kick up the ass a lot faster than I thought. NICE see this mornings RSN.

Partial cancellation of liquidity facility
Thomas Cook Group plc (the "Group") confirms that in accordance with the "cash sweep" provisions of its bank facility agreement £100 million of the liquidity facility provided pursuant to the facility agreement has been cancelled. As a result, an additional fee of up to 2 per cent of the total facilities outstanding, amounting to approximately £26 million, will not be payable.

From CR on the other side;

From Oriel today:

This transaction should lead to a modest increase in forecasts for 2012/13 and 2013/14.

Under its new management team, we consider Thomas Cook has strong recovery prospects. Full delivery of the group’s targets suggests that EPS could reach 21p in 2014/15, even allowing for the assumed dilutive effects of a £300m equity issue, giving a P/E of just 5 times ( see our note of 14 March ) . Even adopting a prudent approach and discounting an element of these savings, we consider the shares have further significant upside.

We wonder how many holidays to Cyprus have been cancelled so far?

I can't see any reason to cancel a holiday because of the current banking situation!

Though might be tricky to withdraw cash from ATM's or cash travellers cheques?

I never use ATM's when I'm overseas on holiday, but I suppose some people do.

Also many cypriot businesses now refusing to accept credit cards, fearful that they will not be reimbursed.

[If you ever go to India db4, you will have to use ATM's as currency controls prohibit buying rupees in the UK]

Hey up, moving up nicely this afternoon.

DB....... this on out late today.......

21 Mar Thomas Cook Group... TCG Credit Suisse Outperform 111.90 106.60 146.00 146.00 Retains

146P SP target.

Thank you gf, it looks a realistic target right now.

Superb......

http://uk.advfn.com/news/PRNUS/2013/article/56860056?xref=newsalerttweet

Part of an article from The Guardian;


Finally, could Thomas Cook become a takeover target for German leisure group Tui AG? That is one possible move Tui could make after it abandoned a plan to take full control of its subsidiary Tui Travel in January, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Jamie Rollo. He said:


Valuation and other issues make it hard for Tui AG to buy the rest of Tui Travel, and it has limited time to reinvest its cash. We look at other potential options if it sold its 54% Tui Travel stake, including acquiring elsewhere in leisure travel.



He said Tui and Thomas Cook had a shared history - Tui (then Preussag) acquired a majority stake in Thomas Cook in 1998, but had to sell this after acquiring Thomson Travel in 1999 - and Thomas Cook remained an important client of Tui AG's hotel business.

Thomas Cook's current depressed share price would make it a more attractive deal for Tui AG than Tui Travel, whose shares are more highly rated. But competition issues would mean Tui AG having to sell its stake in Tui Travel - something it said it had no plans to do - if it bought Thomas Cook.

Other options for Tui AG could include a break-up of its business, but overall, Rollo doubted anything was imminent.

Thomas Cook, which on Thursday refinanced a syndicated loan to save up to £26m, finished down 0.2p at 111.7p.

Brill DB, this looks hot.