.

I would expect TD in about 30 days, so perhaps news then.

However, as they are drilling 2 fans, they might give us news after the first fan and they might not.

Will keep th excitement level going :)

Oh good - another ducking thread.

Had to, sadly markymar is being an idiot and being abusive to me, so I might soon have to add him to the "squelch" list, which then makes any threads started by him useless.

So, had to start a new one.

grow up you child!!

Sorry, sod the Penguins, lets get that oil...... !


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nikolas-kozloff/wikileaks-from-south-atla_b_804296.html?ir=Green

..........Needless to say, it is difficult to see how the longstanding territorial dispute between Britain and Argentina over the Falklands, which is now being exacerbated by oil rivalry, will increase environmental protection for local penguins. If the WikiLeaks cables are any indication, Britain is determined to get at offshore oil, even if that means antagonizing the environmental community. Such narrow mindedness is certainly deplorable, but perhaps not too surprising given that up to 60 billion barrels of oil may lie near the Falklands. ..........

For those wondering why RKH have not got into the new rig contract yet, it appears Arcadia not going ahead with their 2 slots has allowed RKH to take them and therefore the rig is still under the old contract for perhaps another 5 months.

As explained below, excuse the typo in there.... :)





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Evolution Securities prefers Rockhopper Exploration and Argos Resources (LON:ARG) to Desire and so do I :)


http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/24315/desire-shares-drop-another-20-pct-after-latest-falklands-duster-24315.html

Desire shares drop another 20 pct after latest Falklands duster

Tuesday, January 04, 2011 by Jamie Ashcroft

Desire Petroleum (LON:DES) shares slumped a further 20 percent this morning with yet another failed exploration well being plugged and abandoned.

This morning it revealed that its latest well in the Falklands failed to locate oil or gas in the Dawn prospect, the wells second target.

The 25/5-1 well was designed to test two targets - Dawn and Jacinta - in the North Falkland basin. Last week Desire told investors that the well did not find any hydrocarbons in the Jacinta prospect.

This latest disappointment follows the dour news last month that the companys Rachel North well would also be abandoned.

Desire will now await the results of its seismic survey being carried out in partnership with Rockhopper, which also plans to drill the next two wells in the basin. Later, the rig will return to Desire for the last drilling slot in the current exploration campaign.

David Hart, oil and gas analyst at Westhouse Securities, downgraded his view on Desire in the wake of this mornings announcement.

The analyst cut his rating to hold and reduced his price target to 40 pence - after previously rating the stock an accumulate.

This is further unfortunate news for Desire, following the earlier disappointment with the Rachel prospect and Jacinta just before year end, Hart said in a note to clients.

He added: The ongoing 3D seismic programme may expand this portfolio of prospects but drilling more than one additional well is likely to require further financing as well.

Looking ahead, we will adjust the risk associated with drilling Desires next well based on the results from Rockhoppers (LON:RKH) upcoming wells and the results of the new seismic programme.

Evolution Securities prefers Rockhopper Exploration and Argos Resources (LON:ARG) to Desire.

And the broker pointed out: Desire has sufficient funding for one last well in the northern part of the basin, however, we remain cautious given the track record of well results and acreage and prefer Rockhopper and Argos,

Evolution rates both Rockhopper and Argos buy, with price targets of 400 and 52 pence respectively.

This is the second well in the southern part of the North Falkland Basin and neither has provided much encouragement for the future prospectivity of this area, Evo added.

Until we gain further information on Desires final drilling target we remain cautious on the shares which will, in the near term, be driven by drilling results from Rockhopper.

The Desire share price has been decimated since a shock change in fortune in early December - with the company prematurely proclaiming a new oil discovery when in fact the prospect was water bearing. On the December 6 the stock more than halved in value as it fell from 133.25 to 67.25 pence in one session.

Subsequently the Dawn/ Jaquinta well has led to yet more despair for investors, with the stock falling to 42.5 pence and then 34.5 pence in the wake of the 25/5-1 drilling results.

It has not all been doom and gloom in the Falklands though. The new oil frontier provided one of the AIM markets biggest stories in 2010, with many investors riding the white-knuckle rollercoaster ride.

Rockhopper Explorations Sea Lion discovery gave investors the stand-out result, as it confirmed what investors had long hoped for, however all the other wells drilled in 2010 failed to match it.

Whilst we now know that there is oil beneath the inhospitable waters surrounding the Falkland Islands, there is still much to do in 2011.

Looking back it is clear that 2010 was a hit and miss year in the Falklands. Overall three of the five AIM-listed explorers were actively exploring the Falklands, and between them drilled seven holes and one sidetrack.

Rockhopper and Desire did most of the work, with their operations in the North Falkland Basin taking centre stage. In total the two firms have now drilled six between them.

Meanwhile in the South Basin, Falklands Oil & Gas (LON:FOGL) shares were hit in July after the Toroa well came up dry in July.

Of all the wells drilled only the Sea Lion found potentially commercial quantities of oil.

The New Year will see the groups explore with more than just the drill bit. Rockhopper, Desire and AIM newcomer Argos Resources (LON:ARG) are set to open up a whole catalogue of new targets with a massive seismic programme in the early part of the year.

Back in October the groups agreed to two separate seismic programmes, one between Desire and Rockhopper and another between Argos and Rockhopper.

The first of the programmes got started on 20 December, as the Polarcus Nadia3D seismic vessel arrived in the waters around the islands.

The second programme, which will use the Polarcus Asima vessel, will follow shortly.

Results are expected in early spring for both programmes.

Lets hope 2011 proves a more fruitful year for the companies drilling in the South Atlantic and also for the investors who have staked a lot of money on their success.

As its my choice for the 2011 competition over on TMF

Here is the link to the write up (its also in the header for ease of finding).

http://boards.fool.co.uk/nfsc-2011-rockhopper-write-up-rkh-12137962.aspx

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markymar, ever since I called Dawn/Jacinta perfectly correct, you got it wrong and lost loads of money you have been abusive to me and being an idiot.

I see its not stopping.

So now I shall "squelch" you so do not bother writing anything to me again, as I will not be able to read it, perhaps you can understand that ?

From the Sector Watcher today (FT Alphaville) , it should be noted that they allow nothing for the S2 fan and so if that comes in as well, expect valuations to go wild....


..........."Rockhopper has spudded the next well on its PL032 licence in the North Falkland Basin, with the 14/10-3 well located 8 kilometres west of the Sea Lion discovery. The well, located outside the Sea Lion Discovery Area, will appraise the northern lobe of the Sea Lion structure, hence it should not be considered quite as high risk as a pure exploration well Id imagine the chance of success is around 1 in 2 to 1 in 3. Difficult to say what a successful well would do to reserves estimates on the overall Sea Lion structure although with a current P10 case of over 600 million barrels of oil against a P50 case of around 170 million barrels there is clearly enormous upside.

The well should take around 5 weeks to drill and will be followed by 14/10-4, designed to test the southerly extension of the field. Interestingly, if the southerly extension is successful, the structure could extend about 1 kilometre into Desire Petroleums acreage in the adjacent licence. Following the two wells, the Ocean Guardian rig will probably revert to Desire for its final well.

Thereafter RKH has signed up the rig for three firm wells and five contingent, designed to appraise Sea Lion and test further exploration prospects, so it will be a busy year for the group. Our current NAV on RKH is 494p/share, although this could be deemed conservative as it assumes only the base case reserves estimate of 170 million barrels and a long-term oil price of $70/barrel. On the basis of a successful P10 case, this valuation would likely more han treble.

RKH remains the best way to play the Falklands exploration province.........

Pretty similar picture every day now, dip down in the morning and early afternoon and recovery end of the day.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/24607/broker-roundup-rockhopper-exploration-universal-coal-chariot-oil-gas-kentz-24607.html

Broker Roundup: Rockhopper Exploration, Universal Coal, Chariot Oil & Gas, Kentz

Friday, January 14, 2011 by Jamie Ashcroft

Evolution Securities analyst David Farrell featured Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) in the brokers First Take morning note.

Farrell said: While Rockhopper has said that the 14/10-3 well is an exploration well it is targeting the northern lobe of the Sea Lion fan and should it work we believe this will start to validate the upper resource estimates of the original Sea Lion discovery.

The RPS report published immediately after the Sea Lion discovery suggested an upper resource estimate in excess of 500mmbls.

Based upon a 200mmbls discovery we believe that the Sea Lion discovery is worth c350p/sh suggesting the market is ascribing just 31p/sh to exploration which we believe is worth c180p/sh on a risked basis.

If this first Sea Lion well works, we expect a significant leg up in the share price.

Charlie Sharp, equity analyst at City broker Charlie Sharp also commented on the news.

We expect considerable further exploration and appraisal work beyond that, dependent to some degree on the outcome of the next two wells.

We believe that Rockhopper presents the best opportunity among the FI players for further positive share-price movement in the near term, although the risks remain considerable, Sharp said.

Fox-Davies emphasised that whilst the well is being drilled near the Sea Lion discovery well, there are distinct differences between the two parts of the Sea Lion system.

The new well is located to the North of the discovery well and will test the northern lobe of the Sea Lion fan complex which looks, from seismic mapping, to be fed from a different sediments source, the broker said.

We understand the seismic attributes are similar to that at the discovery well location, hence limiting the risk, although the 8 kilometre distance is a large outstep from that data point and reservoir/seal risk is far from negligible.".................

Interesting couple of posts by kiwi over at AFN, and I do think the comment on over a billion barrels recoverable just from Sea Lion is very possible, not fantasy.

7Kiwi - 15 Jan'11 - 19:59 - 14480 of 14487

I've been doing a bit of digging to see if I can work out where 14/10-3 is and what S2 might be. Of course there's an element of guesswork, so I can't be certain but there's a certain amount of fun in guessing.

First a graphic of Sea Lion taken from the "volumetric assessment":

I've drawn an 8km line in a NW direction from the Sea Lion discovery well to work out an estimate of the location of the current 14/10-3 explo well.



Second, here's a picture taken from elsewhere in the same volumetric assessment document. This shows a very rough schematic of the main Sea Lion fan and the deeper Sea Lion fan. It also shows in blue another fan that they think may merge into the lower fan.



With a bit of squinting I think it is possible to see that the 14/10-3 well may just be clipping this blue fan, and hence the blue fan is quite possibly S2. Further, in Figure 17 of the volumetric assessment document it describes a "high amplitude seismic event" of equivalent age to the lower Sea Lion fan.

Trouble is, I'm not sure the "blue fan" is quite big enough. The P10 size of the Lower Sea Lion fan is 30km2, and by inspection, the blue fan looks a bit smaller, so I don't know where the size of 46km2 comes from. Indeed the P10 estimate of Sea Lion itself is only 55km2, and that is muich bigger than the blue fan.

I guess we have to wait a bit for proper answers.

Volumetric Assessment doc for reference:

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk/pdf/Volumetric_Assessment_of_Sea_Lion_2010.pdf



7Kiwi - 15 Jan'11 - 20:06 - 14481 of 14487

Also a bit of looking at the license maps leads me to beleive that the gap between the southern boundary of the current RKH 3-D and the southern boundary of their license is some 5km. If SL is to extend into DES's acreage, then I thik it would be at least twice the size of the current P10 estimate of 55km2, which would suggest it contains over 1.2bn recoverable barrels (plus the lower fan plus whatever else they find).

Nice to think about, but probably not realistic.

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Rumour has it the seller is now clear, whether that is correct or not who knows, we will see next week if there is a strong move upwards with less available stock on offer.

Pros - Was that dogging or digging? Squinting or Squirting the blue fan. Yours confused!

confused.com

Where the 3D is being done. Page 11 of the presentation below :

http://www.polarcus.com/assets/0000/1209/Polarcus_Company_Presentation_SEB_12_Jan.pdf


Here is the blow up of the chart on page 11 :

Interesting RKH are doing 3D on Weddell down there.

Overlaid the 3D map from Polarcus with the NFB prospect/license map and you can now see where the 3D is being done in relation to the targets.




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