.

Gerponville - expect the worst - and you will often be pleasantly surprised.

My 400K holding was mostly purchased in the 50's pence levels.

FOGL can drill both Loligo and Scotia and still have 41p a share left in cash - and big farm in partners in place.

Therefore I can be very relaxed with my position - its weighted to exploit the risk/reward - but I will not lose any sleep holding it through to Loligo and Scotia results with 41p a share cash leftover after both drills are done.

As we all know : with exploration companies : it's hit and miss....the thing with this current well is that the upside in the event of a hydrocarbon discovery is enormous....so the question is to us all : are we prepared to take a risk ?.....if there wasn't another well after this one I would be a lot more cautious....

To clarify.
My expecting the worse means that I put the odds on failure as higher than success, that is how my investing strategy on any AIM share works.

So if I invest say £5000 equally between 5 different AIM companies, even if 4 fail completely, I only need the remaining one to be a 4 bagger to break even.
On past experience, to have 4 out of 5 fail completely is very rare, with my average being 3 out of 5 loosing me money, 1 a total failure with that remaining one making up and over the difference.

That's what I did with GKP a few years ago Greekman......a few failures and then a bit of luck with Gulfkeystone got me going again......

perhaps i have indeed lost the plot, but MrP looks as though he has completely lost his marbles, always assuming he tells the truth (some question that)

What he might do or has done is to sell 50%.....a sort of free ride thing....

RF - not selling any - not sold any - no plans to sell any.

Simple as that - holding my 400K for both well results now - given the Noble farm in and cash position after both wells of 41p a share left over.

As it is undervalued with huge potential....if, and it's a big if a discovery is made, the sp could go ballistic !....

I love that word.........BALISTIC........As we say EN France "Gastronomique"!

i'll potentially go to hell (heaven is unlikely), but that presupposes it exists

Based on your popularity Cynic, I guess "Heaven is definitely unlikely"..........I like some of your comments though, straight to the point………No holding back!

So people, where should the drilling be after 30 or so days since spudding. I am no expert in this field, is it simply a case of half way through so they should be half way down. Is it liekly info will be released on the way down or will they wait until the drilling is complete?

as has been said of me in the past, "No one will ever misunderstand the point you're trying to make!"

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-05/dhoot-said-to-seek-3-billion-for-africa-gas-block-stake

Mid case 45 TCF recoverable (between 30 and 60)

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-06-11/news/32175164_1_gas-discoveries-mitsui-e-p-miozambique-lng

45 TCF mid case - 3 billion US$ for 10%

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-05/dhoot-said-to-seek-3-billion-for-africa-gas-block-stake

10% of 45 TCF recoverable is 4.5 TCF

3 billion US$ for 4.5TCF = circa 666 million US$ per TCF


Loligo 25 TCF recoverable on a P50 basis.


25 TCF with 75% ownership = 18.75 TCF net to FOGL recoverable.


18.75 x 666 million US$ = 12.48 billion US$ = £7.9 billion

£7,900,000,000 divided by 320m shares in issue = £24.68 per FOGL share for a full on gas discovery at Loligo.


(And FOGL's license area's could hold up to 300 Billion BOE in place)

Proselenes shall we just call it £8bil, whats £100mil amongst friends!!.. ;D))

Best keep cynic happy, lets call it 7.5 billion pounds sterling then................

it's all a load of bollocks anyway until there's a result and then there'll be even more bollocks as those results are interpreted and ramped

Of course you won't be gaining any benefit from all this bollocks and ramping then, hey cynic?!!!..

cynic only holds a couple of FOGL shares now - sold the majority (of his small holding) at 86p the other day.

But of course, should FOGL strike gas or oil there will be a million and one people claiming they purchased just before the news/just on the news at very low prices and then sold higher and locked in big profits............

LOL - always the same the bollox they spout.

I held RKH from 38p to selling at 300p. cynic sold at 60p and got back in at 80p and sold at 90p and back in at 120p and sold at 140p and back in at 180p and sold at 190p etc. etc.. etc.. etc.. etc....