http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

thought that was tigger and piglet's friend .... you weren't shagging the poor little chap were you?

lol lol Cynic!

Anybody seen Zak Mir's RKH chart ?

no, where did Zak leave it?

If i knew that i woundn't be asking

Any articles in the papers today ?...must be some write-ups.....

The Sun

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3001329/Rockhopper-Exploration-locates-huge-oil-field-off-the-Falkland-Islands.html



The Daily Mail
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1284171/Oil-discovery-Falklands-hailed-biggest-kind-North-Sea-Oil.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1768979

Independent analysis revises size of Sea Lion oil find upwards with potential for further increase

Rockhopper shares jump after discovery upgraded
By David Telfer

Published: 05/06/2010

Rockhopper Exploration saw its shares soar yesterday after it upgraded its estimates for its Sea Lion oil find and said there was a possibility of further upgrades.

The North Falkland Basin oil and gas explorer said that according to an independent assessment by RPS Energy the best estimate of oil in place had been revised upwards from 568million to 806million barrels, with best-estimate recoverable reserves up from 170million to 242million barrels.

It also said analysis of samples had confirmed the find the first in an exploration programme by several companies off the Falkland Islands as medium-gravity crude oil with good reservoir characteristics.

The company said: The assessment of the Sea Lion discovery was performed within a limited time frame.

RPS is being commissioned to conduct further work on the discovery and therefore the assessment published today may be subject to change following a more detailed technical review.

Managing director Sam Moody said: Rockhopper has now confirmed the first oil resource in the Falklands. Our analysis of the data from the Sea Lion well suggests that there is significant potential upside on our acreage and our technical effort will now focus on integrating all of our new knowledge of the basin so we can understand and identify the best prospects for future drilling.

Being a 100% holder of this acreage potentially places Rockhopper in a very strong position.

We are now looking forward to drilling Ernest and testing Sea Lion.

Our recently updated economic model indicates that a standalone field of 60million barrels recoverable could be commercial at oil prices down to $50 per barrel.

Rockhopper was established in February 2004 to invest in and carry out an offshore oil exploration programme to the north of the Falkland Islands. It holds a 100% interest in four offshore production licences and has also farmed into two permits operated by Desire Petroleum in each of which it holds a 7.5% interest.

Its share price jumped as high as 374.54p yesterday before settling up 33% at 319p.

Thanks...

So it looks like they will drill Ernest first and then test Sea Lion after...and then it will be Desire Petroleum's turn again.

It would make sence to flow test Sea lion and on the back of results raise more cash to drill other prospects then drill Ernest in case it is not a gusher....strike while the iron is hot springs to mind.

A successful flow test and a upgrade on reserves on what Sea Lion holds will put another 2 to 4 on the share price hence my way of thinking a flow test first and results of that as they drill Ernest.

marky doesn't it all depend on the terms of the contract with the owners of the Ocean Guardian, after all there are others involved namely DES and FOGL.

Exactly...Desire got the rig in the first place...

Agree it does but DES and RKH stand shoulder to shoulder, i guess we will have to wait and see.

Cash.

Looking through the figures :

RKH had 50M pounds.

Allocated was :

Mobilisation 5M
Sea Lion 16M
Ernest 13M
Liz 2M
Ann 2M
Ninky 2M
Demobilastation 5M
Not allocated 5M


So money spent so far is Mob + Sea Lion + Liz = 5M + 16M + 2M = 23M

Left over funds = 27M

Ernest drilling is 13M

Left over = 14M



So financially RKH can drill Ernest and flow test Sea Lion and then decide fund raising when they are in an even stronger position in terms of a flow tested Sea Lion and hopefully a good Ernest result too.

Get the SP up to 800p after flow testing Sea Lion and then just 5M shares gets you 3 appraisal wells paid for............

BUT BUT BUT

I would prefer they reward shareholders though.

A rights issue at 400p would be good, I would subscribe.

1 for 10 (eg every 10 shares you own you can buy 1 new at 400p) but people can subscribe for up to 5 for 10 in case others do not take up theirs).

17.5M new shares at 400p would raise 70,000,000 pounds.

That would drill a couple of appraisal wells at Sea Lion, an appraisal at Ernest if needed and drill say Jason and Fox/Stephens too and would have money left over.

By the time that lot was all done the SP should be around 20 to 30 pounds or more.

Sounds good to me.


(Source for up to date drilling costs is http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk/pdf/Interim_results_to_300909.pdf as the ones in the older CPR are out of date, the ones quoted in the last interims is the latest correct up to date ones.

You lot are a little over optimistic....don't you think ?...

complete and utter bo**ocks..

A post from oil Brat from iii...

Posted on DES put equally applies here.

Well that was a roller coaster of a week

To answer the specific question do I still rate DES the answer is a resounding yes.

The there is no easy way to do the detailed technical easily but Ill try my best. The geology in the basin is complex to say the least. There are multiple source rocks and Ill wager multiple seals in one large package.

Take a very large swimming pool, empty. The floor of the pool has thousands of little holes. Over a year poor in sand at five points around the pool (the paleo rivers that fed the basin). Over that year the sand will roughly form mounds from the side of the pool towards the middle of the pool. In the mean time the wind will mess it up, as will the rain, dead leaves, dirty etc etc. When you have poured a lot of sand in stop and pour in thick gloopy mud into the pool until its full, (regional seal). Now inject oil into the bottom of the pool through the little holes (source rock). The oil rises to the surface but is trapped by the sticky mud. If you wanted to get the oil out you dig into one of the bits of sand. Thats your NFB.

Sea lion is one offshoot of one of the five sand sources. There will be hundreds of them, some significant number filled with oil. If you read the latest RKH report figure 9 gives a good stylized diagram, its much much more complicated that that.

That regional seal is thick and fairly massive. It seals the whole basin, and it covers Dess and Rkhs acreage. This is a major result. Basically the wells in 98 tested above the seal as their primary. The oil on the top of the pool, above the seal is thin and gets washed away. Every well that has gone beneath the seal has found hydrocarbons and there are three discoveries!!! Quiet possibly six (two more in Liz and one more in Sealion).

In RKHs report they say they are re-evaluating based on the fairway. Basically some one just handed them the instructions for the basin and they are now looking and re-evaluating all the, lets call them sub prospects. Desire will be doing the same. Any structure under that seal that has permeable sand has a high probability of being oil saturated.

Underneath all of that there is clearly a major gas system. This gives two advantages, there would be gas available for lift in the future and it may also supply gas drive to aid the movement of oil out of the reservoir (pressure). And not a hint of water seen This is a serious discovery in a serious basin.

RPSs interpretation is rightly conservative in the extreme. However I dont need to be and thats how to many money out of this. Their recovery factor is low. My risked estimate would be to use their medium probable in place and a recovery of 35% not 30% this gives you 282m recoverable. Thats 864p a share using $8 in ground value. (the majors are pumping vast monies into Iraq for a much worse return than that with horrendous political risk). Now if you jiggle the maths for a realistic recoverable on realistic size (its far bigger than the P50 number, look at the bottom of Figure 13 emm whats that?) then Id say thats a billion barrel plus find with 400m recoverable, thats 1200p a share. This is all based on a single strike. It is not possible to have a single strike, all the pieces are there for a basin wide (Des and RKH) oil province. Remember all that cobblers about no big fields possible? Rubbish, and now published evidence that this is rubbish. Ill make a bet with anyone that cares to take it, there will be 5 billion HC equivalent recoverable in RKHs acreage and 8 billion in Desires. (This includes condensate and dry gas). Depending how you do the maths thats 150 to 200 pounds sterling a share. (at $8 in ground not produced value)

The final piece is the flow test. The well was logged with magnetic resonance, basically an MRI, like in hospitals. The physics is fairly horrific but it can very precisely determine rock from oil, and it does so by exciting the oil at an atomic level. It is highly likely that this oil will move. Its on the lighter side of the range expected it should flow fairly well. Bring in a well test with more that 2,000 bbls / day and RKH and DES both become take over targets. 6 quid for RKH on 100 pound plus value (500+ pound a share produced value), its a no brainer as they say. Based on that maths its only slight risk at 20 quid Bring in a couple more finds and 20 quid is your starting point

Basically theres an open day at Fort Knox at these prices, anyone who is still negative is in the main vault wanting to do a risk assessment as to how many gold bars would exceed the European manual handling limit when everyone else is filling their boots and every other available receptacle.

Regards
OB

another over optimistic ramper..

You're on form this w/e Bb!!! Bad result on the Derby or bad weather in the southwest??? ;o)