http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Harrycat: the shear cost of dealing with Private investors on this fast track placing would make it unworkable. This discount is tiny to last nights close , which is very unusual. A private investor could have bought plenty of shares this morning at 290 or less.

There will however be some 'institutions in the placing who will make a quick turn on any share price rise which might cap the upside of these shares in the short term

As it it was 290p....pointless exercise, and it would take 6 weeks at least...no, the placing was the best option this time round.

FTSE250 at year end.

That will allow the big boys to buy in as many large fundies are not allowed to buy AIM stocks so a move to the main market unleashes a massive amount of potential buyers.

900p year end target !!


The 280p placing pretty much underlines things now.

Pre-budget CGT profit taking might keep it weak for a little more time but thoughts now firmly go ahead to Ernest drilling and Sea Lion flow testing.

Flow tested P50 Sea Lion at 242M barrels = 720p a share.

Flow tested Ernest discovery P50 150m Barrels = 445p a share.

720p + 200p for Ernest (pre flow test post discovery) = 900p target for end of this year.


Any upgrades to Sea Lion P50 = higher target prices.


Can you see why they expect the book closed very quick at 280p....... :)

That's if everything goes 100% right....too optimistic....and way too high...

FOX DAVIES NOTE

Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) (BUY, 4.00) (RKH, 290.25p, ▼ (9.01%)) announced the placing of 17,320,000 new ordinary shares at a price of 280p each to raise 48.5m before expenses. Placing proceeds will be used to progress Rockhopper's current drilling programme in the North Falkland basin, including flow testing of its Sea Lion exploration well and drilling an exploration well on its Ernest prospect.

Extract from Oriel broker note. Lets hope they ask us next time!
"The amount being raised however, will not be enough to cover further appraisal wells on Sea Lion. We would therefore expect an additional raising later in the year once we have clarity on the Sea Lion flow-test and in light of the further exploration drilling planned on both Rockhopper and Desire's acreage where the company has a 7.5% interest "

Harry, ref to the Times article that fund raising IMO will be when RKH joins the FTSE 250, and being a main list stock they can then get support from all the big institutionals (as a vast amount are forbidden to buy AIM stocks).

Flow test Sea Lion, prove it.

Upgrade it.

Drill Ernest and flow test if needed.

Then on to main market and off of AIM along with a nice big placing (at around 800p ?)

I am going to set 2 limit buys up, just in case FOGL gets a duster and the shorters short all Falklands stocks.

Buy triggered at 270p and also one at 260p.

You never know, if FOGL gets its expected duster (well, not a duster but oil shows but non commercial) then they might get filled on a quick shake down.

So the plan is going to be, according to those at the DES AGM :

FOGL - Toroa drilling - ongoing now.
RKH - Ernest drilling (and possible flow test as equipment will soon be in the area?)
RKH - Sea Lion flow testing.
DES - Rachel drilling (and possible flow test as equipment will be in the area).


Should DES strike at Rachel and need to flow test then they should be paying back to RKH a share of the costs of hiring and getting the flow test equipment down to the NFB. Presently RKH are paying for it 100% as they are the only ones in need of it and planning to use it.

Placing closed, full............. and the "main market" mention :) !!


RNS Number : 2602N
Rockhopper Exploration plc

8 June 2010

Rockhopper Exploration plc
("Rockhopper" or the "Company")
Result of Cash Placing
(the "Placing")

Rockhopper, the North Falkland Basin oil and gas exploration company, is pleased
to announce the successful completion of the equity placing announced this
morning.

A total of 17,320,000 new ordinary shares of the Company (the "Placing Shares")
have been placed by Canaccord Genuity Ltd at a price of 280 pence per Placing
Share, raising approximately GBP48.5 million before expenses.

The Placing Shares will be credited as fully paid and will rank pari passu in
all respects with the existing ordinary shares in the share capital of
Rockhopper, including the right to receive all dividends and other distributions
declared, made or paid after the date of their issue.

Application has been made for, and the Placing is conditional on, inter alia,
admission of the Placing Shares to trading on AIM ("Admission"). It is expected
that settlement will occur, Admission will become effective and dealings in the
Placing Shares will commence at 8.00 a.m. on 11 June 2010.

Following Admission of the Placing Shares, Rockhopper's issued share capital
will consist of 192,504,954 ordinary shares of 1p each. As such, the total
number of ordinary shares in Rockhopper to which voting rights are attached on
the basis of one vote per ordinary share held will be 192,504,954.
The above total voting rights figure may be used by shareholders as the
denominator for the calculations by which they will determine whether they are
required to notify their interests in, or a change to their interest in, the
Company under the FSA's Disclosure and Transparency Rules.


Pierre Jungels, Chairman of Rockhopper, commented:

*********************************************************************************************
"We are delighted that the placing has been successfully completed and met such
an enthusiastic and swift response. We see this as a significant vote of
confidence from investors in our work on the drilling campaign to date and in
our plans for the rest of this year. Rockhopper has grown rapidly over the last
twelve months and is well placed to continue to achieve substantial further
growth during the next phase of its development.

The board will consider, provided the relevant requirements are met, whether the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange would be the most appropriate platform for the Company's continued expansion both by improving its profile as well as potentially increasing the liquidity of trading in its securities and enabling
wider investor access to Rockhopper's shares."

Of course, if Toroa & Rachel are both dusters, your limit buys might get filled & still be loss making. Toroa is an unkown, but the DES drill is going to be a nervous one, imo. Very bad news if that one is a duster.

Rachel is a long way off.

Next is Ernest.
Then flow test Sea Lion.

Then late Q3 will be Rachel.

yes it would be very unfortunate if DES have a second duster after putting in the effort to organise the Ocean Guardian, the only one to run with is RKH at present.

your talking to your self halifax.....he won't listen....

From Stuartb1976 from iii


The morning started with the formalities of the resolutions being passed.

Ian Duncan then did a brief overview of the progress that had been made in the past 12 months or so and talked about the data gathered from Liz/Beth as well as Sea Lion.

He confirmed that Desire and Rockhopper remain in very close contact and all information is being shared between both parties to increase the understanding of the basin.

Dr Duncan confirmed that it was always Desires intention to drill Liz first as it would provide invaluable information about various different play types. They now need to understand why the oil quality in the area drilled was of poor quality and if there if a chance of better quality oil elsewhere within Liz. He DID NOT rule out the posibility of returning to Liz later in the campaign.

He then confirmed that due to the success of Sea Lion and the similarities between Rachel and Sea Lion that for their next drilling slot which is expected to be early September 2010 they would be drilling Rachel (No Surprise there!!!)

He then answered questioned from the floor I have given details for those questions that I feel offer most information to PIs:


In view of the information recovered from your drill together with the information released by Rockhopper and the seismic data approximately how many potential prospects/targets do you believe there are in your acreage

This question was evaded in the main presentation but was said to be considerably more than first thought. I asked the question again to Bob Lyons after the presentation and he indicated that the number of targets now did probably exceed 100 however not all of the current targets would become prospects.

---------------------------------------------------------------
When will the detailed analysis of Liz/Beth be released Can you tell us anything further at this time.

This has turned out to be far more complex than originally thought and full analysis may take another two months.

---------------------------------------------------------------

What are the implications of the RKH announcements In particular the Regional Seal and New Play Fairway.

Hugely positive and increases the chances of success greatly, especially in the similar play types i.e. Rachel.

---------------------------------------------------------------
How much are Rockhopper and Falkland Oil & Gas paying to use the Rig?

No figures confirmed but obviously they are paying total cost of rig whilst under their control.

---------------------------------------------------------------
When will Arcadia's involvement be made clear?

Arcadias involvement has not changed they will be paying the total cost of drilling their part owned prospects. However in view of the Sea Lion discovery other prospects have been pushed up the priority list i.e. Rachel and Ninky!!

---------------------------------------------------------------
If we require additional funds to Well Test how will these be raised?

Any additional funds required are likely to be raised via a placement and YES PIs will be given the opportunity to participate.

---------------------------------------------------------------
How did the cost to complete Liz compare with the original budget?

It went over budget due to the delays caused by the over pressure. Worryingly they seemed not to have a clue of the exact cost to date not even to the nearest million!! (Its complex!!)

---------------------------------------------------------------
Is it still the intention to drill 4 more wells.

Yes 4 in Desire own acreage plus the two Arcadia prospects, although they did hint that there may not be sufficient funds to complete this especially if they need to well test and side track!! After the presentation I asked about the side tracking and both Bob and Ian did say it was likely that Rachel would be side tracked either up dip or down dip.

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Is the Well Test equipment that has been deployed by RKH a joint expense?

If/When Desire require the Test equipment they will look to share the cost with Rockhopper. The cost to mop and de mob the Test equipment is circa 8 million (I think) Plus 120,000 per day (I think this is and not $)

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Are DES going to retain control of the Ocean Guardian after the first round of drilling is completed or will we have to compete for it?

Yes although the rate will need to be renegotiated but Bob Lyons seems very confident that they would be able to secure the rig to continue exploring beyond the current campaign at a fair rate.

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Have you made investigations as to how information was leaked to the Sunday Times before an official rns was issued and will this episode mean you change your stance with future announcements?

They did not seem concerned by the whole thing they have not and will not be making further enquiries. Nor will they change their stance on future announcements. They will issue an RNS on spud and then another one once all results are known and nothing in between.

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Finally I had a conversation after the event with Bob Lyons about the end game plan and although he stated that they are primarily an exploration company I got the impression that if they found themselves in a position to produce oil they may well do so but this is likely 3 - 5 years away. They are NOT looking at selling up early and want to maximise their/our eventual returns. (NO Majors sniffing around yet!!)

On a number of occasions both Dr Duncan and Bob Lyon gave a timeframe of 5 years to really maximise the value so if your thing 20 SP thats fine but not this side of 2012 IMO.

Hope this helps!!

I go away salmon fishing for 10 days and all hell breaks loose...............10 pages of sniping to read up on............

looks like my prediction is happening..

I thought the fishing season only opened 9 days ago avsec???? ;o)

Support at 280p then Bb?

http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/news/display_news/article/rockhopper-exploration-raises-48-million-and-mulls-move-to-main-market-on-the-back-of-falklands-suc/771.html

June 09, 2010

Rockhopper Exploration Raises 48 Million And Mulls Move To Main Market On The Back Of Falklands Success





Its amazing what one good well in an industry hotspot can do for a company. Rockhopper Exploration was once ranked among AIMs many exploration hopefuls (and not so hopefuls), holding rights to some ex-Shell acreage in the unproven and remote waters to the north of the Falkland Islands but without the cash or rig access to drill its portfolio. That began to change late last year when it joined forces with fellow AIM group Desire Petroleum to mobilise a rig to the North Falkland Basin, and the transformation began to gather pace this year with the successful drilling of Rockhoppers first well, Sea Lion 14/10-2.
The Sea Lion well, which now carries a best estimate resource tally of 242 million barrels recoverable according to independent engineers RPS Energy, put a rocket under the Rockhopper share price, which has increased by a whopping 500 per cent since the April spud date. Company chairman Pierre Jungels, commenting after this weeks successful fundraising, said the company was now mulling a move to the Main Market.

That fundraising saw Rockhopper raise 48.5 million pounds on Tuesday through the placing of 17,320,000 new ordinary shares at a price of 280 pence per placing share, a move which gives it the financial muscle to complete its current drilling programme in the North Falkland Basin. The placing nudged the shares higher, to close at 296 pence on Tuesday, giving the AIM company a market cap of 502 million.

Jungels said the enthusiastic and swift response to the placing was a significant vote of confidence from investors in our work on the drilling campaign to date and in our plans for the rest of this year.

Those plans include flow testing the Sea Lion exploration well, which will cost 21 million, and the drilling of an exploration well on the Ernest prospect. The monies will also help demonstrate the companys financial robustness to the Falkland Island authorities, an issue much on everyones mind given BPs traumas in the US.

Investor attention will now turn to the flow testing of the discovery well, which will provide the real proof of the pudding. So far the company, which holds 100 per cent of the discovery, has been very forthcoming with technical data from this highly anticipated well (all wells in the Falklands attract a following, not least because of the geo-political concerns with Argentina). The well was drilled to a depth of 2,744 metres and penetrated a regional seal between 2,250 metres and 2,374 metres. Based on log analysis, coring and wireline formation testing, it appears that all sands encountered beneath this regional seal are charged with oil. No oil-water contacts were encountered.

The total vertical oil column is 217 metres, with total net pay of 53 metres in seven identified pay zones, the thickest of which is approximately 30 metres gross. The entire Sea Lion fan has an aerial extent of over 45 sq km and there are strong seismic indications of thicker reservoir packages elsewhere in the fan. Logging data suggests good quality reservoir, with average porosity of 19 per cent and good permeability, with the crude samples recovered showing oil of 26.4 API and 29.2 API.

The flow test will be critical, however, as MD Sam Moody acknowledged earlier this month. The test of Sea Lion will be a key step on the road to proving commerciality, said Moody. We believe that, with modern horizontal completions and water injection in sands of the quality encountered, recovery factors significantly above the 15 per cent assumed in the P90 case could be achieved. Furthermore, our recently updated economic model indicates that a stand alone field of 60 million barrels recoverable could be commercial at oil prices down to US$50 per barrel."

a difficult call at the moment ..... sp hovering close to the placing price, but markets intrinsically unstable to weak, and many unknowns to RKH itself