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URU hold 27.68 million shares(16.6%) in Kalahari Minerals(KAH) which hold a large stake in the Aussie company Extract(EXT) the holder of the licence to work the Rossing
South, which have turned out to be one of the largest uranium deposits in the world.
RIO who have the site are investing heavely in both companys and it seems will
make a take over bid in th not to distant future? A couple of posts which give an idea whats what,

Excerpts from the Hanson research note on Jan 29th 2009 relating to company valuation:


For the purpose of our valuation we have used the long term $80/lb price and the current $/� exchange rate of $1.40/�1.00. Other assumptions include:
� Cash � URU currently has �1.4m in cash (1.3p per share) and no debt. We believe that this is enough to fund the company�s activities until July/ Aug 2009

� Kalahari Minerals � The total market capitalisation of Kalahari Minerals is �77.83m. At the current share price of 43.5p, this makes Niger Uranium�s 27.68m shares worth �12.04m or 10.64p per share.

� Henkries project - Niger Uranium has an NPV15% for the project of US$150m before tax. Our own valuation based on the original 3.72Mlbs estimate is US$17.43m after tax. As no resource has been defined we apply a x0.6 discount to NPV, which equates to 4.89p per share for their 74% stake.

o If Niger Uranium can define an 11 Mlbs resource we calculate an NPV of $102.87m after tax or 28.83p per share again at a x0.6 discount for risk. Neither valuation includes any upside for the unsampled Henkries South.

� Niger project - We don�t believe that this is economic as a standalone project at this grade and tonnage. The grades are low but are typical for the region being similar to those at Imouraren and Arlit. However, with Niger Uranium continuing its exploration drilling with two rigs currently on site, the company could increase the tonnage significantly.

o With existing operations in the area including those of Areva and China Nuclear International Uranium Corp., we believe that the most likely scenario is that URU�s Niger project assets will be acquired by an existing producer. The Paladin (ASX:PDN) and Fusion Resources (ASX:FSN) deal in late December 2008 provided an indicated value to resources of US$1.97/resource lb. On this basis and factoring in assumed recoveries and a x0.5 discount due to the perceived risks in Niger, we arrive at a value of �2.35m or 2.1p per share for the Niger project.

� Argentina UrAmerica � This is more difficult to value as it is a private company. However, Niger paid $2.5m and 4,664,306 new shares for its interest which would value the stake at �2.3m or 2.06p per share.
Conclusion

Our total sum of parts value is 20.90p, which does not include any share holder dilution caused by any subsequent fund raisings. It also does not include any upside for Henkries North and South, the Niger exploration or expected upside in the value of the company�s Kalahari minerals stake when the full resource is announced by Extract Resources.

Given KAH's sp increase, the 27.68mln shares is currently worth 17.7p per share (at KAH = 72.5p), which would increase the valuation to 28.02p per share.

And - If they can get the 11 Mlbs resource from Hankries, then this would increase the sp to 51.96p per share.

So currently they are trading at a discount of 12p (or 75%) to the current mid price.


if RIO pay �5/lb of U based on the forsys/forrest deal then KAH holding in EXT would be worth around �300M. URU holding is worth around �45M at this price. by all accounts the grade at Rossing South is high grade and superior to the forsys/forrest U grade so a price equivalent to this deal is not pie in the sky in the slightest. In fact you could argue EXT should be asking more for its Rossing South asset


Right, here's what I reckon is going on.

EML is Dattels & Mellon's vehicle, aligned with URU (which they also have interests in).

There is a big battle on at EXT right now, to determine the Board composition. Whoever gains contol of EXT's Board will do the final negotiating with RIO (or a.n.other, e.g. Areva, Chinese, Russians - all may be interested, I understand) concerning either a sale or a JV to exploit Rossing South.

With over 40% of EXT's votes, KAH's votes are crucial in determining the outcome of that battle... so, whoever controls KAH effectively controls EXT. At present, IMV Dattels, Mellon & co control KAH via URU and EML. ISTM, from his statements and past actions, that Hohnen has aligned himself with them. When he said on Tuesday "Clearly certain Kalahari shareholders voiced the same concerns when they refused to endorse the potential merger between Extract and Kalahari over concerns that Rio Tinto could emerge with a controlling interest.", that's who the "certain shareholders" are. RIO are trying to dilute that control by buying KAH shares themselves. EML's move is a fightback to retain/strengthen Dattels, Mellon & co's position.

From RIO & Dattels' POV (and mine :0)) these shares are still cheap, so they don't mind paying up now to reinforce their positions for the endgame.

The last posts were c&p, from very capable investors.

A quick way to value URU's holdings in KAH is multiply its SP by 24.4%

http://www.freesharedata.com/eml


cyril

I fancy them both !.

are you the alter ego of alan clark?

At your age RF, you sure you could manage lol.

alan clark could, and as did casanova regularly, frequently leaving an unwanted parting gift of one kind or another!

cynic you speak for yourself!

actions speak louder than words!

At present this is trading at 25% its holding value alone in KAH, seems it tends to lag a little. Ideal opportunity?
My barra boy friend coming up trumps, up 10p to 195p this am.
cyril
ps the fundimentals of IRV are pretty impressive.

Take KAH's 123.5p SP * 27,680,000=34,184,800/113,160,000=30.2p and
trading at 23.5p.
Well i topped up as i feel we will play catch up?
aimho
cyril

Worth almost 31p for their stake in KAH alone.
cyril

Topped up again as this looks cheap against KAH, remembering that URU's asset
value of KAH is roughly 25%. OF 120p about 30p'ish + their own assets which include most promising Henkries, for which a reserve update is due in the very near future.
So 50%potential mark up from its stake as it stands.
aimho
cyril

Found this by a reliable source.

Attended Jim Mellon's talk at yesterday's Master Investor show. He said that he and Dattels were "at war" with Rio presently over Kalahari/Extract. He expected that they would realise value from their investment "sooner or later".

After the talk I managed to grab a couple of words with him. He still has a few shares in URU & is friendly with Ian Stalker. He described URU & EML operating as a "pincer movement" on Kalahari. ;0)

He does consider URU a good way to play the Kalahari/Extract story, as well as EML.

BTW, he publishes a newsletter here: http://www.wakeupnewsletter.com/ which might be worth following.

cyril

Niger Uranium is pleased to announce further encouraging drilling results at its Henkries Central deposit, with individual sample assays up to 5.14 kilograms per tonne U3O8 as well as indications of a new and deeper mineralised zone. The Company has also has received promising initial results from the Henkries North exploration target.

An additional 12 boreholes have been drilled at Henkries Central, with 11 of these containing significant mineralisation. Results for all 12 boreholes are listed in Table 1.
Just a matter of rasing some finance and we could see a serious rerating?
cyril

Back in at 19p and waiting cyril....:))

Hi,

Back from the AGM now.

This has to be one of the most productive AGMs Ive attended. If it werent for the fact that Rio Tinto sent one of their staff and that Stephen Dattels attended in person, one might take some of the statements made with a pinch of salt. Kalahari has now released their official AGM statement: http://fool.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200905121302371099S.html . Ill not mess about and just highlight the key bullet points.

- In conversation with Glynn Tonge after the meeting, he believes that it now looks highly likely that Rossing South Zones 1 and 2 link up. He has just returned from a semi-annual visit to operations in Namibia. Intensive drilling is currently underway between the zones.

- He also said that the exploration rig was currently working around the Salem area but that Extract would not reveal results, even to him. He said that results of the explo drilling will be announced in August. [I am surprised that they would hold back any significant discovery].

- The helimag survey will start next week and should take 2-3 weeks

- Mark Hohnen stated in the formal meeting that he is now confident that the total zone 1 and zone 2 resource will be 500Mlb+ - yup, that isnt a typo :0))) (though obviously not by the time of the August zone 2 maiden resource declaration)

- In response to a question from Laurie Kennedy* of Rio, Mark Hohnen confirmed that, as a gesture of goodwill towards Rio, Kalahari had agreed that it did not intend to increase its stake in Extract beyond 40%

- In response to another question from Rio, it was confirmed that David de Jongh Weill was representing Niger Uranium on Kalaharis Board. In a chat with David after the meeting, he confirmed that whilst he has known Stephen Dattels for 7 years, his introduction to SD was through Mike Beck, who he knows much better. He also confirmed that Chiliogon has been acting in a corporate finance capacity on behalf of Niger (but not Kalahari).

- In the post-meeting chat, it was mentioned that Rossing South looked bigger & better than Rossing (4th largest U mine globally). LK did not disagree.

- I chatted briefly with LK who spoke about the current volatility of the U market. There was a big grin on his face when I pointed out that whatever the U price was, Rossing South would be one of the worlds most profitable U mines, due to its low cost.

- I also chatted with DdJW after the meeting. He confirmed that it would not be unreasonable for me to expect an announcement concerning URUs funding soon (dont forget, he is a barrister ;0)). Most importantly, he said that the Board intended to minimise the fund raising (just to meet short term needs) & dilution. Not much funding was required to progress the Henkries project at present.

- Speaking to Mark Hohnen & Glynn Tonge after the meeting, they emphasised that they were very keen for Extract to become a Namibian company and establish its HQ there (this makes sense to me). Zaamwani is keen to know Extracts intentions for moving the project forward. They were non-committal about working with Rio but re-emphasised that if the three companies were to work together, Rio would have to make a full and fair offer.

- Before the meeting I spoke to Stephen Dattels, who was quite friendly (but a bit irritated that the meeting got off to a late start, I think whilst waiting for certain shareholders to arrive). I mentioned that I was not invested in Polo as I found GCM a bit complicated. He confirmed that the negotiations around that were rather a headache. He seemed happy about prospects/progress at Caledon - but obviously cant say much about that.

* It would appear from this: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20706111-643,00.html that Laurie Kennedy is Rios Chief Counsel. ;0)

Those are the key points. I asked some questions on the accounts amongst the formal business:

- Most of the admin expense is accounted for by their base metals explo & study. This expense has not been capitalised.

- LK asked about the sketchiness of the directors remuneration report. I pointed out that it is not mandatory under AIM and referred him to note 4. [He needs to get up to speed on AIM rules!]

- I asked about the big jump in salaries shown in note 4. Duncan Craib stated that this was a timing difference, and that whilst the report showed just 9 employees last year and this, considerably more were employed whilst the base metal explo programme was more active.

There was no presentation this year but after the formal business I spoke to Glynn Tonge about the base metal projects. He confirmed that Indium was present in the samples from the Namib lead/zinc tailings and the mine itself. He wouldnt comment on concentration but indicated that this would be included in the resource report which should be published in the not too distant future. Base metal price volatility made it difficult to assess feasibility (suggests to me that the economics arent brilliant). MH said he expected theyd be able to bring the base metal projects on stream as the markets for those metals were in their next proper upswing.

Considering what appears to me to be a slackening of the pace on explo and studies of the base metal projects, my feeling is that theyre currently taking rather a backseat to developments at Extract.

I have added to my URU holding at 19.5p today (at their current SPs each URU share represents 28.9p of Kalahari or 28p of Extract) and stand ready to add to my (larger) Extract one, should the price dip.

Regards,

Mark

From a trusted poster (KAH's AGM)

cyril

I'm thinking these are a no brainer now as we approach july, the simple way into EXT for RIO. My buy of the week.

no stopping this one, near breakout on the chart as well. Bllinding investment this one, obvious what is going on to those that bother to research, work it out you lazy buggers ;-))

Kate seems that the rebels who operate in the region of Henkies have agreed
a peace plan? If so this will do wonders to for the sentiment of Niger.
cyril

yes looking good here.

Interesting rise today after 3 large sells earlier in the day?

Andy at KAH's SP of 134.5p URU's share(27.68m) equates to roughly 32p,so i suspect the SP is carching up?
cyril