http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

http://kurdistantribune.com/2012/krg-pay-1-5-billion-liabilities-oil-companies/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=krg-pay-1-5-billion-liabilities-oil-companies

FT.com August 27, 2012 6:24 pm / Kurdistan players pin hopes on new pipelines/By Michael Kavanagh

This month’s move by the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq to resume oil exports through a pipeline network controlled by the country’s federal authorities has done little to placate Baghdad’s anger with western oil companies entering the region.
Deals struck over recent weeks between leading oil companies and Kurdistan’s regional government to acquire oil interests in the semi-autonomous region have faced heated opposition from the Iraqi government.
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However, some argue that the latest transactions by France’s Total, Chevron of the US and Russia’s Gazprom have helped mitigate fears among investors over political and operational risk in the region.
Stuart Joyner, an analyst at Investec, suggests that the sums garnered by those companies that have recently sold assets to the oil majors in Kurdistan are modest.
“Not much has been disclosed with regards to terms,” he says. “These interests might be selling for modest amounts of money – low single digit dollars per barrel. Compared to East Africa and other hot spots, it’s relatively muted.”
But the deals are still likely to have earned their sellers multiples of several times their investment, and suggest that yet more oil majors might brazen out the anger of Baghdad by taking positions in the region.
The share prices of companies active in the region have reacted positively in recent weeks, albeit in a limited fashion.

Toronto-listed WesternZagros, which has signalled its intent to seek a London listing, saw its shares spike from C$1.12 to C$1.35 in the wake of a deal in which Gazprom assumed a 40 percent stake in one of the blocks it controls in Kurdistan.
That deal saw WesternZagros receive $83m from Gazprom and allowed it to raise C$57m at $1.40 a share earlier this month.
Shares in London-listed Genel Energy, a leading oil and gas operator in Kurdistan, have also ticked up this summer.
Genel in August agreed to buy a further 21 per cent stake in the Bina Bawi exploration block for $240m.

It is also spending $450m to buy out the interests of fellow Kurdistan explorer Heritage Oil in the Miran gas field as part of its ambition to be a consolidator in the region - a deal struck at a keen price according to analysts at Deutsche Bank.
Gulf Keystone, another explorer in Kurdistan and Aim’s biggest company by market value, also saw its shares pep up from a low of 139.25p at the end of June to 201.25p at the end of last week, though this is still well below a high of 465p hit in February.

Brian O’Cathain, chief executive of Aim-listed Petroceltic International, which is also present in the region, suggests that though assets are still being traded cheaply, the price of acquiring a foothold in Kurdistan is rising.
Signature bonuses payable to the Kurdistan regional government by companies striking exploration and development deals are also increasing.

He points out that Genel’s agreement in May to pay just $175m for a slightly larger, 23 per cent stake in Bina Bawi as a sign of appreciating prices for Kurdish oil interests, in spite of Baghdad’s stance of freezing companies who do business with the KRG out from the rest of the country.
Petroceltic itself last year took up a 16 per cent stake in fields operated by Hess. “There’s a perceived market risk because people are still unable to confirm when it might be possible to export,” he says.
The real game changer for western-listed oil companies producing and exploring for more oil in Kurdistan will be completion of an independent pipeline capable of supplying Turkey direct with 1m barrels of oil per day that is scheduled to be operational by late 2013 or early 2014.

“I don’t know anywhere in the world where you have 1m barrels a day behind the pipe and it doesn’t find its way to market,” said Genel Energy’s chief executive, Tony Hayward, as he reported results last Thursday.
Backers of the investment case for the region argue completion of direct pipelines will help profitably monetise currently stranded oil and gas assets that have attracted other London-listed companies, including Heritage Oil and Afren, to the Kurdistan area.
Assuming routes to market can be tackled, there is one other key reason why oil companies are overcoming their previous reluctance to deal direct with the KRG at the expense of Baghdad.
“The production sharing contract conditions available in Kurdistan are more generous to the companies than the contracts available from the federal government,” argues Mr Joyner.

Richard Griffith, analyst at Oriel Securities concurs. “Companies are going up to Kurdistan because they believe in the future of Kurdistan in controlling exports. At 1m barrels of oil of a day, Kurdistan will have the ability to monetise its reserves.” He accepts, though, that for some investors the case for investing in Kurdistan remains unattractive. “You either like it or you don’t like it.”

from the analysis's report.


As a reminder, from analyst presentation by joseki:--
"This brings us to our prize among prizes, the jewel of Kurdistan, Shaikan, which has had a great run on appraisal this year. The BoD reinforced that recently they didn't need to test to the good parts that were there, but went for the marginal sections to better understand what we have. We did reach OWC on SH6, 150m below target levels below spill point in the Jurassic and will add significant increments to both the aerial extent and depth of the Shaikan structure. If I take us to the outline of the Jurassic on p13, the current green area on the east of the Shaikan block pretty much extends green all the wall to the remaining blue section of the block and likely into the South too of the neighbouring block. The water contact on SH6 is in the low Kure Chine C or D section, and there it is like what we found in SH4. There is possibly another OWC in the Butmah level but that requires further testing. What we have encountered is extremely high pressure of 19.2 pds/ga in the Triassic, and we need to think how to deal with this. To give some context, the Triassic usually in SH1-3 is more 12 pds/ga, so this has surprised. During SH5 in the Kure Chine D levels there was a significant oil kick with sample gravities in the mid 30s-40s and appears to be sweet. This bodes well the prospectus below. In terms of the Jurassic matrix, the overall fracture or amount of oil retained is higher than expected, where originally it was thought 0.8%, but is now proven to be some 3%. The main takeaway on the back of SH5 SH6 is we can expect an increase again in OIP on Shaikan."

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Unless you are a day trader, this one is more indicative of the trend!

Using the chart as a quick ref,looking at the longer chart,is that a golden cross?

It would be nice to see a less confussing chart in the header,just lots of lines and squiggle,to me. Apart from taking up so much space,not needed,imo.

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at this level, sp is just teasing about 200 dma ..... a bit more impetus and things might start looking exciting at long last

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Place cursor on GKP for video.

http://www.iii.co.uk/tv/episode/gulf-keystone-and-genel-kurdistan%E2%80%99s-big-winners

Thanks cyril and Genel gets a mention.

This is a buy above 200p

why 200? ..... it's already 234, which from a simple chart point of view is imprtant as it's 200 dma

Ooooops, I meant to say 220p, in case it pulls back a tiny bit.

Never traded this one before looking good chart wise. If interim results were in a months time would not hesitate to be in on the spreads on Monday. But wee bit wary of profit taking on Wednesday. Also I know this is a bit of a no brainer but to increase chances of a winning trade (spread bet) would prefer to wait till 50DMA crosses 200DMA, this is obviously where the big moves have taken place as can be seen on 4 year chart above. Good luck to present holders. Looks to be solid support @ 200p and the other major advantage is that any stock that is not being relentlessly ramped by Pro and grannyboy has to be a winner :O)

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Looking great for 250 by eoy.

stupid boy mitz, 280 - 300 eoy.,.

David L. Phillips to Gulan:Barzani’s Position is Understandable …. The 2005 Constitution is not a Menu from which Maliki can Pick and Choose

10/09/2012 : 09:22:17

David L. Phillips is a visiting scholar at Columbia University\'s Center for the Study of Human Rights. He has worked as a senior adviser to the US Department of State and the United Nations Secretariat. He has held academic positions as a visiting scholar at Harvard University\'s Center for Middle East Studies and as a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna. He has also served as executive director of the Elie Wiesel Foundation for Humanity, deputy director of the Council on Foreign Relations\' Center for Preventive Action, director of the European Centre for Common Ground, project director at the International Peace Research Institute of Oslo, and president of the Congressional Human Rights Foundation. We contacted the Professor Phillips to discuss the current situations in Iraq and the area. And the Professor Phillips replied to our questions in an exclusive interview to Gulan Magazine as the following:

Q: Recently a US senior delegation has paid a visit to Kurdistan region, which is a sign that US wants to care about Kurdistan region and the relations between both are at a higher level. How do you see the current US policy regarding Kurdistan region?

A: The Obama administration sees Iraqi Kurdistan becoming an economic powerhouse and energy hub. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) estimates 45 billion barrels of oil reserves in Iraqi Kurdistan. There is also great potential to develop natural gas fields, which are essential to the economic viability of the NABUCCO pipeline, which runs through Turkey. Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade Frank Lavin recently visited the Kurdistan region to launch “Iraqi Business Gateways,” an initiative for promoting private investment in Iraq. Deputy Under-Secretary of Defense for Business Transformation Paul Brinkley came with more than 50 U.S. officials and business leaders. In addition to agriculture, tourism, and construction opportunities, Kurdistan can also become a portal for expanding U.S. business in other parts of Iraq.

Q: The relations between Kurdistan region and Baghdad are not in good situation. Prime Minister Maliki is not ready to approve the rights of the Kurds which have been drafted within the constitution so that Kurdistan region can follow them as a federal region. He is not ready to respect the constitution. How is it possible to make Maliki to comply with the constitution?

A: Prime Minister Maliki has consistently shown a blatant disregard for the rule of law and constitutional power-sharing arrangements in Iraq. He calls for majoritarian rule, a code word for consolidating power at the expense of other Iraqis. Maliki uses the ministries of defense, interior and national security to crackdown on dissent. He has arrested political rivals, targeting Sunnis such as Saleh al-Mutlak and Tareq al-Hashemi. In addition, Maliki has heightened tensions over internal boundaries and called for the repeal of Article 140, which pledges a referendum on Kirkuk’s status. Iraq’s problem has always been the centralization of power. Maliki is continuing this trend, alarming U.S. officials with his dictatorial ways.

Q: Another difference between Kurdistan region and Baghdad is that Barzani supports the Syrian people and Maliki is willing to see Assad remain in power. Why Maliki is supporting Assad to remain in power?

A: Maliki acts in Tehran’s interest and serves as its proxy in the region. Tehran backed Maliki’s bid for a second term, and provides essential support keeping him in power. Baghdad has been allowing Iran to use its airspace to resupply Syria’s armed forces. Iraqis suffered under the tyranny of Saddam Hussein and have a natural sympathy for Syrians who struggle under authoritarian rule in Syria, and fear attacks using chemical weapons. Maliki’s support for Assad has also exacerbated tensions between Shia and Sunnis in Iraq.

Q: You know the position of Barzani who insists on implementing the Iraqi constitution and has said that \"If the constitution cannot be implemented, then we can\'t live in Iraq which violates the constitution and is not democratic\". To what extend US understands the position of Barzani?

A: Barzani’s position is understandable. The 2005 constitution was not an interim measure. It is not a menu from which Maliki can pick and choose. The constitution was the product of difficult negotiations and ratified by an overwhelming majority of Iraqis. It represents a compromise designed to preserve Iraq as a democratic, federal republic. Maliki’s abuse of the constitution raises questions about his continued commitment to preserving Iraq within in its current frontiers. If Iraq falls apart, no one can blame the Kurds.

Q: Everyone is expecting big change in the area following the downfall of Assad\'s regime. After the fall of Assad\'s regime, what changes will occur and to what extent will the Kurds benefit from them?
A: Assad’s downfall may not be imminent. The crisis could drag on. Syria might look a lot like Bosnia in the early 1990s. The central government may continue to lose control of territories to local militias. Local militias would take control of Syria’s cities and towns. In this event, Syria’s Kurdish region may be an island of stability. The West should reach out Syria’s Kurds, bridging gaps between different factions and parties. U.S. experts can assist Syria’s Kurds to embrace democratic principles and decentralization. The United States has an interest working with the KRG to foster a Kurdish platform in Syria, which is secular and rejects the use of violence to achieve political aims.

Q: Turkey is playing an essential role in the area and in the Arab spring. The relations between Turkey and Kurdistan region is in very good position right now. To what extend Turkey is important for Kurdistan region in the current time?

A: Relations between Turkey and the KRG have come a long way. Opening a consulate in Erbil was a big step. Better relations have been consolidated by trade and investment, as well as security cooperation. Iraqi Kurdistan is a big export market for Turkish consumer goods. Turkish construction companies have benefitted from the booming business in the Kurdistan region. The new airport in Erbil was built by the Turkish firm Makyol. Last year, Turkey did more than $7 billion worth of business in Iraq; more than half took place in the Kurdish provinces of Erbil, Sulaimani and Dohuk. It was just three years ago that Ankara vilified Masoud Barzani and, accusing the KRG of harboring the PKK, threatened a large scale invasion. Now Ankara and the KRG are involved in a broad range of security cooperation, including intelligence sharing.

http://www.gulan-media.com/english/t_detail.php?section=21&id=71