.

Just had to bank something Prosels......can always jump back in if necessary.....just too exposed I was.....

Exactly - as you can see from RKH - it all goes flat and duff when they stop drilling.

While they are drilling the stocks are hot hot hot - and BOR will be hot into the Stebbing well.

Comment from the FT sector watcher:
"We spoke to management yesterday who claimed that the rumours were entirely unsubstantiated, nevertheless the market is taking a different view, with an astonishing 20m shares traded yesterday. In terms of the impending well result, which is likely any day now, I think there are four possible scenarios: (i) a dry hole – shares likely down 30-50% although the downside would be limited by the fact that it has another firm well to drill, (ii) gas discovery – shares flat to down as gas is perceived to have little to no value offshore the Falklands, (iii) gas plus liquids – depending on the size of the discovery, it is likely to be taken pretty positively, (iv) an outright oil discovery with a big oil column – shares likely to double, but again this would be dependent on the size of the discovery. In the best case, i.e. if Darwin meets the pre-drill estimate of 760m barrels recoverable, this is theoretically worth around 1300p/share on our modelling. However, it is unlikely that the market would ascribe full value to the find immediately, which has also been the case with Rockhopper and its c400m barrel Sea Lion find to the north. Nevertheless I’d still see scope for the shares to increase three or four-fold from the current level of 108p/share."

The waiting period seems to be in effect now.

Whoever is buying knows that by stagnating the price its now going to tempt many people into selling some, selling half or whatever to derisk in case bad news comes.

So they sit now, not driving the price up, just letting it fluctuate - holding it around a range and now hoovering up all the sells.

The price action is saying perhaps Monday RNS - lots of stock will get hoovered up today and tomorrow and then - its RNS time.

I have offloaded all my long spread bet positions in BOR, but not sold any shares.

The profit from the SB's will now see me fine if BOR share price collapses to around 50p - I will end up with no loss and no gain and still all my stock ahead of Stebbing drill.

Sit back and relax now and either enjoy the good news or simply smile and laugh at bad news.

You have to be in it to win it, at the risk of not winning of course.

Nice write up :

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/argentinas-president-rejects-stepping-into-the-future/2012/04/19/gIQABtB9TT_story.html


Would be excellent if Chile was put in, in place of Argentina. Chile has always been very supportive of the UK and helpful with all things logistical in the Falklands area.

Pro

Do you ever sleep ?

Yes :)

Looks like Monday morning for the BOR rns then. Which is exactly what I said many posts ago..............

Proselenes - 15 Apr 2012 17:09 - 280 of 440
............

Drill time to TD was estimated at 28 days and rig on site was 38 days.

EG they would get to TD on the 28th day of drilling, then spend some time going wireline and collecting fluid samples etc.. and then finally P&A the well.

So on an ideal timescale news would come after 5 weeks.

If things went really well and no problems then news after the 4th week.

If there were some delays news would be after the 5 weeks.


So 16th March + 28 days = Friday 13th April for TD
+5 days for wireline and interpretation = Wed 18th April
P&A complete and rig move to Stebbing = Mon 23rd April (the 38th day).

Now, drilling never ever goes to plan and is normally delayed, so I suggest its possible for news this coming week, but likely it will be the week commencing Monday 23rd April - if there has been a few days delays picked up over the drilling time....

RKH ,RNS out

not sure whether or not it is that exciting, though it does of course now open the door for any farm-in or similar to be concluded

Looks like a wait until monday for the rns......must be by now some news flitting about whether this is commercial or not....RKH though are now going to need a big boy to help unless they go cap in hand to the bank manager...

I would imagine lots of RKH holders will be selling today and looking to load up with FOGL and BOR.

they're not currently buying fogl, that's for sure

No, but I am.....loaded up with that one now...

MORANI ON III SAYS YES - "The Sun article is the link - the one talking about a big BOR oil find.

Morani
08:37
The Sun shines brightly. It would appear that their article [link]-oil-hopes-send-shares-up-55.htmlis very accurate. As with RKH, it took 4 or 5 days after initial exuberence for the RNS to come out. GL all. M Morani

No it didn't.....nobody had any idea that RKH had struck black gold until the oil column was announced....nonsense as usual....

Looks like the sources were correct then ??? !!!!

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/money/article4265337.ece

........Sources in the Falklands claimed the company HAD made a bumper discovery but was currently evaluating its size and scale..........

I hope that is correct.....but at the moment nothing is sure....the RKH thing is nonsense above...

Struck oil !!! but is it commercial ?