http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

I can't really understand why it's dropping....of course we are a long way from proper production but there is so much oil in the ground heavy or not plus the exploration upside...but it looks like I bought too soon though most are only just above today's closing sp....can never tell : sharp rebound now down again...still think it's a super share though...I can't believe you've sold Cynic....really not the time.....can easily go back to 140 plus where it should be....Russia-Ukraine is not helping...

http://www.theguardian.com/business/marketforceslive/2014/mar/13/gulf-keystone-petroleum-reserves-estimates


"The company said:

In order to mover to the next stage of the Shaikan project execution, the company is making progress in its discussions on the near term debt financing options."

Would that involve dilution I wonder.
2517

From an knowkedgable poster.
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once more for clarity
in order to list some worthy accountant is going to have to sign off on a working capital statement
this in short confirms that the Company has sufficient working capital to meet its plans for the next 12 months plus 1 day ( with an appropriate margin of safety!)

So one can deduce either that there is an acceptable offer of funding on the table from a bank(s) or a number of very firm offers from interested parties

all we have to do is wait and see what funding is envisaged and what the terms are


Having watched the webcast again and read the CPR report it is clear that the requirements of listing and the process of " verification" has necessitated an ultra conservative approach

Might we be seeing also for the first time in public the effect of a new Chairman/NEDS on a gung - ho Executive team?

Fair point by he who dares on triple i:

Remember we have nearly $1bn in recoverable costs which are guarantee'd due to the fact that Akri-Bijeel, Ber Bahr, and Shaikan have all been declared commercial discoveries.....that is 2/3rds of the current share price.

Think cyners is telling porkies about selling all at a loss...........

Checking over the ytades since yesterday,roughly 50m/20m. So 70m traded,thats 35m sold which is less than 4%.Hardly a mass sell off?

http://www.thefiringroom.com/oil-gas/the-gulf-keystone-petroleum-limited-cpr-buy-in-or-sell-out/

i wish i was :-(

If the market reckons that the refinancing is ok ; then the sp will climb....it should be above 200p without any doubt....and I value it above 300p....anyway...I'm staying put until it comes right....even if it takes a few years...

as i wrote in 4746, there will come a time and price where risk/reward start to look very juicy

From the FT today:

'Cannacord estimated that GKP had $90m remaining, suggesting that cash would run "very low" by the summer.
The group's 9bn-barrel Shaikan development "looks smaller and more complex than before [and] we wonder whether the exploration-oriented GKP is best placed to carry through the field's development" the broker said.

Their analyst clearly didn't believe the answer to his question about the complexity (it was clear to everyone else that the complexity issue had been stated repeatedly before) and didn't understand that the volume hasn't reduced for any reason other than the adoption of much more conservative parameters.

I hope that it is a placing rather than a placing and open offer : because the placing could be higher than the present sp due to the number of new shares probably raised....in the present circumstances with Ukraine, market turmoil etc...not the best time to ask shareholders....

Got a little lucky with this one(for a change),after seeing a report for a market correction i sold 2/3rds of my holdings. Mind you i was a little mifed at the time,selling early doors(150p)only to see it rising back to 160p within hours.

It should be remembered that only 4% parted hands in the last 2 days and 1 week to go before news of the listing.Not sure if £1 is the bottom,but we tend to know the worst case and two many reputable firms involved(Ryder Scott,DGA etc)plus large buys by
director recently at much higher prices.
I'm personally waiting ffor the SH-7 result(9 months to the day from spud),which is 3 months away,might top up if i feel it gets juicy?

http://www.malcysblog.com/

Gulf Keystone Petroleum

The long awaited CPR for GKP arrived this morning and I must admit that I was quite surprised at the reaction of the market place although I should give up ever being surprised at anything as far as the company is concerned! The reason for this is that I have been saying for some time that the CPR was always going to be to the right of the sheet for an asset of this complexity and so it proved. I found it interesting that Todd should suggest that as the company has a large retail base that they would address the CPR on a ‘basic level’, I would suggest that IMHO most of the retail base is better informed than some of the professional scribblers in attendance. This was proved when one analyst asked a question saying that why didn’t the company tell him that Shaikan was a complicated asset, only in almost all presentations has this been made perfectly clear.

The report can be seen in its entirety on the website but the big number is 12.5bn barrels with 1.2bn b’s of oil of combined gross 2P and 2C recoverable reserves and resources. The report is by its very nature, conservative and it should be borne in mind that less than 25% of all Shaikan wells are taken into consideration and only in phase 1.

As a baseline, as the company points out, and having monitored the company for many years as well as visiting the asset base, I believe that this CPR is not bad news, at least not as bad as the market has demonstrated. The report is part of the process of a main market listing due on the 24th March and today also sees an operational update in line with my expectations.

Valuing GKP has always been tricky operation, the underlying long term value in the company is not in doubt but the patience of the shareholder base can sometimes be called into doubt, thus taking the shares today to a two year low. The market cap of the company is over £1bn and even on a very conservative basis I believe the assets are worth significantly more than that and even if one allows a discount for over eager PR and expectations if the market doesn’t take that into account somebody else will. If there isn’t a recourse to equity to fund this development, as promised by the company, then equity valuations should not be destroyed any more, indeed I perceive they should go up from here. More in due course if I get some time with the management…

I also reckon that fund raising will bring stability to the sp....way undervalued...

an old truism .... never forget that a price that looks cheap can easily become cheaper still

True and here's a worthy post agreeing.
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iii--Investor48

Hello Everyone and Hub,


The CPR a report that is by far no means a true valuation of GKP,but sets the base for GKP to move to the main listing and a means for GKP to finance it's 1st phase of it's FDP,turned out to a nightmare for all of us invested in GKP.

Before the RNS of the CPR last Thursday,my chartist friend already warned me that the charts look bad and we are heading towards a new year low.Evidently some new that the OIP and 2P numbers will be not to the market's expectations!Hence the stock had been sold down for a few weeks,albeit in volumes between 2-3million shares per day.

On last Thursday when the CPR numbers were released,the shorters lined up during auction to depress the price creating fear amongst PI's that still have margins on GKP,when GKP is already proven to be a volatile stock the last 5years!

The market punished the stock.Yes,we can attribute it to poor management on SH6 and I will not apologize for saying that the management erred.However the market ignored clearly the 2C numbers on Shaikan and the RNS was crystal clear that the 2C numbers will migrate to 2P once GKP has finalized and submitted the amount required for PF3 and 4,for the next stage of it's FDP to take GKP's production to 90K barrels per day.

When Afren paid for it's Barda Rash block in late 2010,it cost Afren well over 400milion Usd for it's 2C and 3C estimates,with no appraisal wells done for Barad Rash.

But the market choose to ignore the 2C numbers of Shaikan that was clearly larger than the 2P numbers.The CPR does state that it cannot put a value per barrel to the 2C because it is subject to the value of the capex to take GKP's production to 90K barrels per day in Shaikan.

Now I will make a comparison to GKP's valuation in late 2011 when GKP had already raised 2placements of 140p.Then in late 2011,GKP's OIP numbers were lower than 9.2billion barrels for Shaikan as given in the CPR and GKP's SP traded well above 140p!!

Today,we have the SP trading at 103p as per Friday's closed.Clearly there are sellers were had to sell and institutions that are fed up,IMHO.Some sold and hope to buy in lower as the fear spreads.

Whilst the SP remains volatile,this 9.2billion barrels in Shaikan is stills very massive OIP by world standards.This is not going to disappear as the SP moved up and down!!

GKP's SP is at a level now that private equity and a predator will be crunching their numbers and sharpening their pencils to move in to take a meaningful stake.Remember GKP is a PI dominated stock and if the SP continues to drop,it will be a sitting duck for the emergence of a major shareholder.This time around,it is unlike in 2011,GKP has already begun exports,PF1 and 2 in place and it's OIP in Shaikan even at 9.2Billion makes it a very juicy preposition!

The emergence of a major shareholder will see the end of the current management,IMHO.Like the saying,what goes around comes around!

No one knows how many more shares will continue to sell on Monday,but the lower it goes,the more attractive it is to a predator to launch a bid and it will not be long,you will see a major shareholder,though,it may not be successful to take over the company but good enough to be in control!

Hence,ask yourself if GKP is worth at least 100p at the current stage of it's development?As for GKP's recovery rate,the CPR is only an estimate and only, over a long production period on the Shaikan wells, can one determine the rate.

Good luck and best wishes to all

Dirt cheap....it's as if it hasn't been discovered !.....