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If you want a reference point this is the chart prior to Sea Lion discovery RNS.

The price kept falling down gently for days on sub 5M shares volume per day and then BANG.





RKH do not do leaks and do wireline logging only after getting to TD :)

Presentation on the new S2 fan, to be drilled in a downdip location during this ongoing exploration well.

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk/pdf/s2_presentation.pdf

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I must say, with reference to the S2 presentation that went up on the RKH website late yesterday, its interesting timing to put the details up.

Most people would assume, and it may be incorrect, that you would not put the information up unless you later wanted to talk about it, and indeed, the only reason to talk about it would be hydrocarbons being found.

Interesting, perhaps a precursor for some good news in the days ahead ? ;)

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Something else that is interesting is that "on loan stock" - or if you like shorts, is reducing all the time, its getting near the stage of being minimal now and continues down over the last couple of days.


This means that normal short positions in the stock are tiny, and that means nobody is hearing any bad news perhaps. (this excludes naked shorting or spread bet shorting, just standard shorting where stock is borrowed and sold)



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New contract in place, when this well, the appraisal well and DESIRES other well are complete a new 3 well + 1 option contract is in place.

http://www.diamondoffshore.com/ourFleet/rigStatus.php

I would guess this will allow us to get to August, at which point ARG should have a good idea of what they want to do and be party to a future extension contract.

Well, if you go to the RKH web site using Internet Explorer

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk/investor-information/reports_presentations.php


Right click on the thumbnail of the S2 Images and select properties you get

thumb_agm_s2_2011.jpg

Which means "Thumbnail AGM S2 2011"


So this presentation is going to be shown at the AGM in 2011. That kind of suggests that they have found something in the S2 fan and its going to become a new discussion point in future.

Interesting.........

Trying to guess this....the most likely story is that they have encountered oil but not in commercial amounts but this confirms the size of sea lion which will hopefully confirm the sp......much more upside than downside here....if no oil -to me : minus 30p, and then it will come back...anything else and the upside could be anything from 50p to several pounds.....so a good share to be in is my way of thinking....

It shows that short term traders/day traders are controlling the price, as the RKH and GKP charts for the short term are nearly the same.

Volume very low again today, not even 750K by lunch time.

Expectations anyone ?

Sea Lion Main Fan - some net pay but small amounts - will boost up the potential that an appraisal well slightly closer to Sea Lion 1 well yield good results and firm up the P50 figures.

Teardrop (Sea Lion Lower) - charged and with decent net pay.

S2 fans - new discovery, charged and with decent net pay - to be be appraised up dip

Lower potential fans under S2 - no idea at all, if they drill longer and deeper that the pre-drill estimated TD then I expect some will be charged and they will go as deep as possible wary of any HP gas.


And of course, it could all be done dry or full of Evian :)

The timing marker should be the S2 presentation being put up on the RKH website, I mean, no point loading it unless you have just been into it.

That would put depth at circa 2680M on 2nd Feb, if it were to be the case. There are possibly 4 more fans under that and so perhaps 3 to 4 days drilling IF they do not go deeper.

So possible that drilling will get to TD on Sunday or Monday and then wireline will be run.

So on that schedule and its all just opinion, then an RNS might be coming Wed or Thu next week, possibly Tue though depending on progress and actual depth at which drilling stops.

News might leak out......through supplies from Port Stanley......

Not at RKH. This is not DES.

L2 update. Basically the offer side is "noise" up to 373p. At 373p lies the seller happy to offload in volume.

A move past 373p bid with high volume is when you know the seller is clear, or something is afoot, as it stands now IMO.

Not even 750K volume by midday. Very low volume.

Chunky buy there (as sells as the seller sold into the buy orders)

Interesting, first signs of someone filling up a load.

Volume picked up, struggled to get to 1M and now nearly 50% again in a short time.

1st signs ?

Needs a few more waves of strong buying and price moving up to have a chance of being anything, otherwise its just someone getting a few in for the weekend and nothing more.

It was a sudden volume spike, if you like it was nearly 1 million shares in the last hour.

That would equate to over 8 million if on a full trading day and that is the kind of volume to be looking for for news coming.



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I think we can summarize events as :

Nothing has leaked off of the rig. Nobody knows anything about the progress or targets.

Something on the logistic front was requested Friday afternoon and this has led to speculation the well will be suspended for flow tests later (as not allowed until after April).

Given that potential on the logistical front it has been assumed therefore that they have found something that may require testing.

However, one should note that the company will not make any decision until wireline is done.

There was a sudden volume spike on Friday late, with basically a million shares in an hour traded - that equates to over 8M on a full day should it have continued. Chart above.

I think many have hypothesized that as they have heard nothing then there is no news = bad news. I think that is very wrong as with the original Sea Lion drill nobody knew anything until the RNS was out (even though there were oil shows and stains during drilling it was totally kept secret - so RKH can keep a lid on everything). Even now the rumours are only due to suggested logistics requests - something that cannot be controlled.

Good luck all, and for sure do not buy or sell on the say so of some anonymous poster on a BB.

Interesting week ahead !