STRATEGY

•FOGL seeks to add shareholder value by pursuing an aggressive exploration programme in its licences to the south and east of the Falkland Islands. Exploration drilling will continue in the deep water areas of FOGL’s licences in the first half of 2012. If successful, this drilling could lead to the development of a new hydrocarbon province in the South Atlantic.

Next Phase of drilling

In the first half of 2012 FOGL is planning to drill two wells in the deep water area of its licences.
FOGL has contracted the Leiv Eiriksson rig to undertake this drilling programme. The rig is due to arrive in the Falklands in early 2012 when it will initially drill two wells for Borders and Southern Plc (B&S), before commencing the FOGL drilling programme. The B&S wells are to be drilled on the Darwin and Stebbing prospects. The results of these wells will be of interest to FOGL, because we have similar plays and prospects within the southern part of our licence area.

The first well to be drilled in the FOGL programme will be on the Loligo prospect. A number of options exist for the second well, including potentially a well on Scotia, a prospect within the Mid Cretaceous Fan Play. The final decision on which prospect will be targeted by the second well will be guided by the results from Loligo.

Funding

As at 7 September 2011 FOGL's available funds, including the BHP Billiton settlement, were $150.8 million. The Company is debt free.


2012 Drilling Programme

The Leiv Eiriksson a harsh environment rig has been drilling wells offshore Greenland for Cairn Energy. That campaign is expected to finish by the end of November 2011 after which the rig will head south to the Falkland Islands. The rig will first drill two wells (about 90 days drilling) for Borders and Southern Plc (B&S) before moving on to the FOGL programme. The transit time from Greenland is expected to be approximately 60 days.

A great deal of work has gone into the planning of the FOGL drilling campaign and over the preceding years a large amount of data has had to be collected to so that the drilling can take place.

Seismic data was acquired from 2004 to 2007 and again in 2011, CSEM in 2007, site surveys in 2009 and 2011 and metocean data, from permanent current meters, in 2009/10. Well planning essentially started in 2009 with the drilling of three, 200m deep, geotechnical boreholes. This data helped with the planning of the shallow section of the Toroa well (FI 61/05-1) and has been extensively used in the planning of the deep water programme.

The first well in the FOGL programme will be on the giant Loligo prospect. A second well will also be drilled by FOGL using the Leiv Eiriksson and site surveys have been acquired over the following prospects: The Nimrod Complex and the Vinson prospect in the Tertiary Channel Play, the Scotia or Hero prospects in the Mid Cretaceous Fan Play and the Inflexible or Endeavour prospect in the Springhill Sandstone Play. Options that are currently being considered depend upon the results of the first well on Loligo. The final play in the FOGL acreage is in the Fold Belt in the south west of the FOGL acreage. This play is being tested by B&S at their Stebbing prospect. Similar features exist within the FOGL acreage and the results of the well will be closely monitored. In addition the B&S, Darwin well is targeting a tilted fault block which again shows great similarities with several prospects in the FOGL portfolio (Inflexible, Thulla etc.). Depending on the results of Darwin FOGL may consider a well on Inflexible as the second well in the programme.

FOGL’s main focus is on the two younger plays, the Tertiary Channel and the Mid Cretaceous Fan play. FOGL has been working on the Mid Cretaceous play for some time but it was only in late 2009, when the seismic data had been fully reprocessed, that it became clear that this major new play was viable. The play is analogous to the ones being successfully targeted in West Africa (the Tullow Jubilee field in Ghana and other discoveries along that margin) and the general geology, depositional setting and even the AVO response (Class II response over Scotia and Hero) are remarkably similar. The two main prospects, Scotia and Hero, both contain prospective resources in excess of 1 billion bbls. One of the key features that makes this play so attractive is that the reservoir sands sit directly above the mature Aptian oil source rocks which were sampled in the DSDP wells to the East of the FOGL acreage.

2012 DRLLING TARGET LOLIGO

The shallowest target alone covers an area of over 600sqkm. The Loligo prospect was first mapped in 2006 and has been re-mapped and re analysed several times since then. It is a large stratigraphic trap which is supported by a very consistent Class III AVO response on the seismic data. It is an ‘easy to map’ anomaly which stands out clearly above the background seismic responses when compared to the entire basin. In addition, it sits directly above an old high which used to separate the Southern basin (Fitzroy sub-basin) from the Northern basin (Volunteer sub-basin). This old high seems to be acting as a focus for hydrocarbon migration from deeply buried source rocks in each of the sub basins.

Beneath the southern part of Loligo several other prospects within the Tertiary Channel play, overlap and may be penetrated by one carefully located well. The deeper prospects (each covering an area similar to Loligo) have been called Trigg and the Three Bears. Together these prospects are called the Loligo Complex. The prospective resources (recoverable oil) associated with the Loligo complex, are in excess of 4 billion bbls of oil or over 25tcf of gas.




FOGL is focused exclusively on offshore oil and gas exploration in the Falkland Islands.

We are pursuing an aggressive exploration programme that could lead to the development of a new petroleum province in the South Atlantic. The joint venture operations have now moved into the drilling phase.
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Most prospects in 2,000 – 4,500 feet water depth (610 – 1372m)

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Target horizons: 6,000 – 13,000 feet below sea bed lever (1829 – 3962m)

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Falklands weather is similar to West of Shetland

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Remote location but there were no major issues during 1998 drilling campaign

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Anchored semi-submersible or drillship for exploration drilling

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Tried and tested technology for developments



Falkland Oil and Gas Limited Licence area.




FINANCIAL SUMMARY http://www.fogl.com/fogl/en/Investors/performance

FOGL HOME http://www.fogl.com/fogl/en/home

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/falkland-oil-and-gas-2012-its-time-63024/

H
my reading of chart suggets 240 short term and 300 long term. might not go straight there of course, but thats the target.wont buy for that reason but looks a good hold for those already in. just my opinion as always.
regards
jkd

go to Newswatch .... at last got the damn thing to come up ..... it's still not very clear to me, but if i have now read it correctly, RAB or CS has actually sold about 3.5m shares

Ah, apologies. Perhaps they do know more than we do then!

have banked a bit of profit here and also on RKH where i was badly o'weight anyway

RAB have just top sliced 3.5m which has to be sensible this close to results...they had 34% and now still have 30.7%....dare say they may flog a few more this week as well, if they have any sense.

have just looked at a weekly bar chart, showing high and low, unlike the charts above which show only close price, my original comment regarding reading of chart was based upon above chart close prices.the bar chart shows that price has ALREADY traded at my 300 long term target.hmmm! i am now neutral and will be interested to see what Happens Next although close price is the important one.
regards and good luck.
jkd

Charting has nothing to do with this one now, jkd : it either encounters oil, gas or something or not.....charts can be read until the awaited rns, then up or down it goes, same thing for Sterling Energy....I've made some small money on FOGL but will probably miss the best if it comes right...not prepared to risk too much here....been in SEY for a long time now...might get my fingers burnt there, but so be it....

On a knife's edge this one.....not in....heavily valued already....could drop by a pound if nothing found, or could rise by a pound....

It's falling now.

so's everything .... glad i took a good profit on 1/3 yesterday, leaving me with a modest holding that is unlikely to go to zero

When will be the news of oil???

perhaps never! ... however drilling news scheduled for next week

From their RNS 28th June:
"FOGL expects to announce the preliminary results of the Toroa F61/5-1 well in the week commencing 5 July 2010. "

it would be very nice indeed if the mega-flurry the other day was from inside info

Rumours are rife nowadays, can't believe any of them.

Regret I sold out of FOGL, but have large enough holdings in DES & RKH, which I am sure will rise or fall (temporarily) on the back of the FOGL duster or gusher.

Westhouse broker note out today:
"We expect results from the well on the Toroa prospect within days.
Ahead of this imminent result, we are establishing a target price of 347p for Falkland Oil and Gas. Clearly success with the well will result in significant upside to this target.
Nimrod and Hersilia are also possible target prospects after Loligo. However for our valuation we have selected Endeavour, in what is likely to be a flexible drilling schedule based on results.
Based on the significant premium our target price represents to the current share price, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on the company. We should inject a note of caution, however, as FOGLs share price will be very dependent on the upcoming drill results. In the event that the Toroa exploration well is unsuccessful, holders should expect a sharp fall in the share price."

That's the problem, I've already made a few bucks on this and would hate to lose it....toss of a coin for this one...and be prepared to be stuck in this for possibly up to a year if it is a failure because there are no signs of a rig for future drilling. It will be a year before a follow up at the very least.

You have a good point there rf. A duster means hanging on to stock for a considerable amount of time.

The same can be said almost the same for Sterling Energy, I'm in that one and not at a profit for the moment : the only thing is that they have encountered signs of hydrocarbons...but coming back to this one....it is so tempting but I'm holding off for the moment....plenty of others to look out for....