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URU hold 27.68 million shares(16.6%) in Kalahari Minerals(KAH) which hold a large stake in the Aussie company Extract(EXT) the holder of the licence to work the Rossing
South, which have turned out to be one of the largest uranium deposits in the world.
RIO who have the site are investing heavely in both companys and it seems will
make a take over bid in th not to distant future? A couple of posts which give an idea whats what,

Excerpts from the Hanson research note on Jan 29th 2009 relating to company valuation:


For the purpose of our valuation we have used the long term $80/lb price and the current $/� exchange rate of $1.40/�1.00. Other assumptions include:
� Cash � URU currently has �1.4m in cash (1.3p per share) and no debt. We believe that this is enough to fund the company�s activities until July/ Aug 2009

� Kalahari Minerals � The total market capitalisation of Kalahari Minerals is �77.83m. At the current share price of 43.5p, this makes Niger Uranium�s 27.68m shares worth �12.04m or 10.64p per share.

� Henkries project - Niger Uranium has an NPV15% for the project of US$150m before tax. Our own valuation based on the original 3.72Mlbs estimate is US$17.43m after tax. As no resource has been defined we apply a x0.6 discount to NPV, which equates to 4.89p per share for their 74% stake.

o If Niger Uranium can define an 11 Mlbs resource we calculate an NPV of $102.87m after tax or 28.83p per share again at a x0.6 discount for risk. Neither valuation includes any upside for the unsampled Henkries South.

� Niger project - We don�t believe that this is economic as a standalone project at this grade and tonnage. The grades are low but are typical for the region being similar to those at Imouraren and Arlit. However, with Niger Uranium continuing its exploration drilling with two rigs currently on site, the company could increase the tonnage significantly.

o With existing operations in the area including those of Areva and China Nuclear International Uranium Corp., we believe that the most likely scenario is that URU�s Niger project assets will be acquired by an existing producer. The Paladin (ASX:PDN) and Fusion Resources (ASX:FSN) deal in late December 2008 provided an indicated value to resources of US$1.97/resource lb. On this basis and factoring in assumed recoveries and a x0.5 discount due to the perceived risks in Niger, we arrive at a value of �2.35m or 2.1p per share for the Niger project.

� Argentina UrAmerica � This is more difficult to value as it is a private company. However, Niger paid $2.5m and 4,664,306 new shares for its interest which would value the stake at �2.3m or 2.06p per share.
Conclusion

Our total sum of parts value is 20.90p, which does not include any share holder dilution caused by any subsequent fund raisings. It also does not include any upside for Henkries North and South, the Niger exploration or expected upside in the value of the company�s Kalahari minerals stake when the full resource is announced by Extract Resources.

Given KAH's sp increase, the 27.68mln shares is currently worth 17.7p per share (at KAH = 72.5p), which would increase the valuation to 28.02p per share.

And - If they can get the 11 Mlbs resource from Hankries, then this would increase the sp to 51.96p per share.

So currently they are trading at a discount of 12p (or 75%) to the current mid price.


if RIO pay �5/lb of U based on the forsys/forrest deal then KAH holding in EXT would be worth around �300M. URU holding is worth around �45M at this price. by all accounts the grade at Rossing South is high grade and superior to the forsys/forrest U grade so a price equivalent to this deal is not pie in the sky in the slightest. In fact you could argue EXT should be asking more for its Rossing South asset


Right, here's what I reckon is going on.

EML is Dattels & Mellon's vehicle, aligned with URU (which they also have interests in).

There is a big battle on at EXT right now, to determine the Board composition. Whoever gains contol of EXT's Board will do the final negotiating with RIO (or a.n.other, e.g. Areva, Chinese, Russians - all may be interested, I understand) concerning either a sale or a JV to exploit Rossing South.

With over 40% of EXT's votes, KAH's votes are crucial in determining the outcome of that battle... so, whoever controls KAH effectively controls EXT. At present, IMV Dattels, Mellon & co control KAH via URU and EML. ISTM, from his statements and past actions, that Hohnen has aligned himself with them. When he said on Tuesday "Clearly certain Kalahari shareholders voiced the same concerns when they refused to endorse the potential merger between Extract and Kalahari over concerns that Rio Tinto could emerge with a controlling interest.", that's who the "certain shareholders" are. RIO are trying to dilute that control by buying KAH shares themselves. EML's move is a fightback to retain/strengthen Dattels, Mellon & co's position.

From RIO & Dattels' POV (and mine :0)) these shares are still cheap, so they don't mind paying up now to reinforce their positions for the endgame.

The last posts were c&p, from very capable investors.

A quick way to value URU's holdings in KAH is multiply its SP by 24.4%

http://www.freesharedata.com/eml


cyril

Missed the RNS, came out at 10.15am, explains the reason for the hike in the SP,
i was thinking it was down to KAH rising.
From the report.


Niger Uranium is pleased to announce that initial results from sonic core drilling at Henkries Central, part of the Henkries Project in South Africa, confirm the presence of uranium mineralisation at shallow depths.

- All boreholes drilled and analysed to date at Henkries Central have intersected uranium
mineralisation in soft sediments within 12.5 metres of surface.

- Highlights include:

HC12600N-150W: 2.52 metres @ 663 ppm U3O8 from a starting depth of 0.57 metres

HC14900-150W: 4.19 metres @ 345 ppm U3O8 from a starting depth of 8.2 metres

HC12600N-300W: 1.69 metres @ 676 ppm U3O8 from a starting depth of 0.43 metres

- Results support the lateral continuity and extent of the mineralised layer/s as originally defined by Anglo
Operations Limited ('AOL') in 1979. In order to validate AOL's historical work, the Company has
positioned validation boreholes along three lines varying between 800 and 1500 metres apart over the
Henkries Central deposit.

This realy is an exciting company now in its own right and my stock will be transferred to the bottom draw.
Its also a possible take over target due to the large holdings in KAH of 27.68m
worth over 22m and roughly 19p per share. So a very good company to hold?
aimho
cyril

I sold out today in KAH making a very handsome profit(worth remembering not long to the end of the tax year), using some of the proceeds to double my holdings in URU. I see this as being better value with URU at 17p with their holdings in KAH
alone worth well over 20p a share, 27,650,000shares held in KAH is worth 23.25m
against a M/Cap of18.67m this without their own asset at Henkies uranium project. Although issue of cash at present i can see little problem with that and if the worst came to boot they could sell some of their KAH stock?
aimho
cyril

I've just posted on KAH the following,

If from the above figure of $2.345billion we calc 40% = 0.938billion at .69p
we now have a total of 647million, 4.5 times the present SP. So were're
looking at a value of 3.64(647/178), very nice if you can get it?
As i just sold out to invest in a part owner URU, who own 16.6%(1/6th) of KAH and have a M/Cap of just 18.67m. One sixth of 647= 108m/18.67 = 95p.
Now 95/16.5 = 5.76 times, not saying one should follow my example, just explaining why i sold. KAH is still a great investment.
If values closed i may consider reversing my holdings?

It should be remembered that we have Henhries as well as cash and other
stakes in Nigor plus a share of Kah's own projects, Lead,Zinc and copper which
adds quite a few pence on the SP. So for me this represents a sound investment.
aimho
cyril

16 trades so far all buys, 18p now required to purchase thats against 21p
for KAH holdings alone.
cyril

From a proactiveinvestor author,

Why not do the calc in a simpler way, rather than trying to work out %'s & market caps for KAH?

URU own 27.7m KAH shares, so that's 24.9m with KAH @ 90p.... or 22p/URU share. Everything else is in for free.

While we're at it, I make KAH's EXT shares + cash worth 95p/KAH share, so buying URU, you're getting a "double whammy" of value: a cheap way of buying KAH shares, which at current EXT prices are themselves cheap!
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This is one of the reasons i changed from KAH to URU, couple that with
KAH's assets and of course our own Henkries uranium project.
cyril

I'm expecting a tick up any minute, M/Cap 22m cash from KAH=28.5m
They also have 1.5m of their own +Henkries project, well undervalued.
From Mark of Proactive.


Any worries about URU's funding may be about to disappear. RIO have announced in the their annual report that they have transferred their Extract & Kalahari shares to Rossing Uranium and that Rossing Uranium will seek a JV with Extract.

That will flush other bidders out. There are rumours in Aus that an initial offer will be made @ A$5/EXT share next week. If there is an offer, I expect it will go for A$6-7. Looks like this will happen sooner rather than later.

When doing any calculations on this basis, bear in mind that URU may have tax to pay on a capital gain (not sure, though, with Virgin Islands registration).

cyril

Using exchange rate of Au$1 = 0.48121 and EXT's last trade of au$4.45
it spewed out the following

one URU share = 25.29p of EXT shares
one EML share = 4.94p of EXT shares
one KAH share = 103.38p of EXT shares

Using the above figures i make that to mulitply KAH's SP by 24.4% gives a quick and accurate value to URU so 101*24.4= 24.6p for its KAH's holdings alone.
cyril

An excellent day finishing up at 22.75p, KAH @ 106.5p is = to 26p,so still at discount? I feel we still have quite away to run on these yet?
aimho
cyril

NICEEEEEEEEEE


TORONTO, March 31 /CNW/ - NWT Uranium Corp. (TSXV: NWT; OTCBB: NWURF)
(the "Corporation") the single largest shareholder of Niger Uranium Limited
(AIM: URU) ("Niger") by its ownership of 34.06% of Niger, which in turn owns
15.06% of KALAHARI MINERALS PLC (KAH.L), ("Kalahari") noted today that it had
previously entered into discussions with Rio Tinto PLC ("Rio") under a
Confidentiality Agreement (CA) that was executed on February 9th, 2009
regarding its interest in Niger and Kalahari.
While not able to disclose the details of these negotiations with Rio
management, NWT terminated these discussions after concern with certain
questionable acts by Rio management which were not in keeping with the spirit
of the discussions.
NWT further noted today's Press Release by Kalahari and believes that it
is in the best interest of shareholders of Kalahari and Extract Resources
Limited (EXT.AX) (EXT.TO) ("Extract") that both companies be auctioned to the
highest bidder when the true potential of the Rossing South world class
uranium deposit located adjacent to the Rossing Mine in Namibia is
sufficiently defined.


cyril

why would one buy the daughter (URU) rather than the "mother" (KAH)?

2 bites of a cherry,their second mine Henkries is quite a worthy prospect.
cyril

2 bites of a cherry,their second mine Henkries is quite a worthy prospect.
cyril

i prefer the maturity of the mother - lol!

I fancy them both !.

are you the alter ego of alan clark?

At your age RF, you sure you could manage lol.

alan clark could, and as did casanova regularly, frequently leaving an unwanted parting gift of one kind or another!

cynic you speak for yourself!

actions speak louder than words!

At present this is trading at 25% its holding value alone in KAH, seems it tends to lag a little. Ideal opportunity?
My barra boy friend coming up trumps, up 10p to 195p this am.
cyril
ps the fundimentals of IRV are pretty impressive.