Anybody else out there interested in these?

2002 Results are due in April, and they are expected to show a maiden profit.
Last week I opened a small speculative long (spreadbet), but I am looking to add to this position a lot more if we get any sort of resolution over Iraq crisis before the results which should spark a broad market rally from which SKP could really benefit and have a strong run-up.

DYOR etc.


Here is a recent research note from Merrill Lynch (they estimate 0.25p EPS for 2002):


Merrill Lynch FlashNote

7 February 2003

SkyePharma

Newsflow Set To Continue BUY

Reason for Report: Company Update

EPS (Dec): 2001A -1.19p; 2002E 0.25p; 2003E 2.13p
P/E (Dec): 2001A NM; 2002E 180.0x; 2003E 21.1x

Michael Ashton, CEO SkyePharma, gave an upbeat and informative presentation today.

Depomorphine appears on track for US submission in June 03. The two pivotal trials (hip and lower abdominal surgery) have been concluded. To date, the results appear encouraging. Management believe that safety (eg respiratory depression and nausea) is not an issue for the drug.The company is also conducting an additional trial in C section patients which is completing enrollment and should be included in the European submission for Depomorphine later this year. We expect the pivotal trial data for Depomorphine to be presented at the American Society of Clinical Anaesthesiologists in October 2003.

Paxil CR continues to grow (accounting for c.26% of total Paxil scrips in the US). 50% of these Paxil CR scrips are repeat and Paxil CR accounts for c.7% of the total SSRI antidepressant market in the US. Paxil CR is already filed for pre-menstrual dysphoria disorder (PMDD). However, GSK also plans to submit the intermittent treatment of PMDD later this year.

SKP also confirmed that Quintiles plans to present new data for Solaraze at the American Society of Dermatology in March. SKP believes that Solaraze is making in-roads into the actinic keratosis market and appears to be taking market share from Ephedrex (5-FU). Clinical trials in Australia are on track, with SKP planning to submit Solaraze to the Australian regulatory authorities in 2004 (second largest market opportunity after the US).

Enzon has already started to market DepoCyt in the US and SKP expects to see wider usage of the drug by key oncologists in the next few months. Phase IV studies for the neoplastic meningitis indication are on track, with an FDA Advisory Committee meeting (ODAC) scheduled next month.

Overall, we expect the newsflow for SKP to continue and reiterate our BUY recommendation with a price objective of 80p (based on applying the speciality pharma multiple to our 06E EPS of 14p and discounting back agressively at 30% p.a.). Risks to the stock include the general risk of drug development delay and product approval failure.

DD

Annual results are out tomorrow and are not going to be pretty - be a very brave man buying in today

Agreed Fund but someone is brave - in fact, if you look at the trades it is more than likely that most of the "unknowns" are buys. A few buyers buying big, and a large number of sells generally selling smallish amounts.

Fundy they say the bad news is in the price,of late its been grim if your a holder but below 50 it mite be worth a long,no position as of yet.

I spoke too soon!

DD

i sold most a while back and have been looking to go back in - will see what tomorrow throws up before making my decision - key things im looking for:

D3 - updated guidance (ive given up hope theyll announce it)
cash position - is a rights issue on the horizon as they run out of cash?
Foradil update
Paxil/GSK update - when back to market/recompense/royalty rate negotiations
other pipeline announcements


dare say if there is no D3 and a rights issue then the removal of Ashton has to be next

Looks like anyone brave enough yesterday will be well rewarded!!!

LONDON, UK, April 28, 2005 - SkyePharma PLC (LSE: SKP; Nasdaq: SKYE) announces
the Company's preliminary results for the year-ended December 31, 2004.



Operating highlights

Agreement with GlaxoSmithKline for Paxil CR(TM) provides a $10 million
cash payment and a higher royalty rate and ensures royalty income received
even while Paxil CR(TM) remains off the market

Pulmonary package: Heads of Terms with major global pharma company for
Flutiform(TM) include up to $160 million in milestone payments and
reimbursement of development costs, with double digit royalties. Agreement
still subject to contract

Conditional UK marketing authorisation for DepoDur(TM)

DepoBupivacaine(TM) licensed to Mundipharma outside North America and
Japan

New agreements with Critical Therapeutics for zileuton and First
Horizon for fenofibrate

Two products expected to be launched in 2005, four products to be
filed for approval and four products to enter Phase III development



Financial highlights

Turnover up by 17% to 62.2m - excludes 5.5m of milestones received
during 2004 (2003: 53.2m)

Royalty income increased by 39% to 26.0m (2003: 18.7m)

Gross profit up 33% to 31.0m (2003: 23.4m)

Exceptional items of 3.0m (2003: 9.5m)

Operating loss before exceptionals and amortisation fell by 59% to
9.7m (2003: 23.4m)

Operating loss after exceptionals and amortisation fell by 48% to
20.7m (2003: 39.5m)

Net loss fell by 44% to 24.3m (2003: 43.2m)

Loss per share 3.9p (2003: 7.1p)

End 2004 net cash 15.3m (2003: 22.0m)



Ian Gowrie-Smith, Non-executive Chairman, said: 'A highly beneficial new
agreement with GlaxoSmithKline for Paxil CR(TM), significant advances for both
our marketed products and our pipeline and important progress on the
long-awaited pulmonary deal are the keynotes of our performance. We now have
five key products on the market generating royalty income for us, with two more
expected to be launched this year, and a well-stocked pipeline of products in
late-stage development. Recent progress on corporate agreements brings us
several powerful new partners. We face the future with confidence.'

I thought it would be priced in the recent blood bath on the sp,no position yet sub 50 for me.

I decided to hold over the results time but admit to being rather lucky - I certainly never forsaw the Paxil deal (and I even used to be involved in the legal issues surrounding international contract re-negotiation and consequential IP licensing agreements - GSK were certainly not bound to compensate SKP!). Still, its about time I was lucky.

Pach

i held some over results but had sold all my trading batch a while back - will try and get some more today

Pachandl well held you should be good at poker with that sort of decision making.

Cheers DD. Fund - presumably you are waiting for a pull-back before committing? Having said that the odds do not favour the sp going lower than 54p.

Pach

Have just bought at 54.5p - amazed that i got that price - almost slightly cautious that the rise so far has been relatively small.

Analysts meeting later and some positive press ahead. Only concern in the short term is the cash position looks a bit tight depending on the timing of some of the milestone payments due and with Bonds to be redeemed in June.

Ashton currently on CNBC (channel 510 on sky)

From Ashton:

D3 is a done deal and he expects revenue in excess of 1bn
deal is still company transforming
very bullish on the success of the paxil negotiations


Ironic - as he was presenting they have the share price at the top of the screen at 54.25p with DAY LOW flashing - lets hope that this is still true at 4.30pm

Looking good then fundy.

Thanks Fund - it looks like Ashton lives another day.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh60376_2005-04-28_08-23-29_l28455207_newsml

BTW- Whatever SKP was receiving from GSK will be 33% increased from the 4th March. That's next week though.
SKP will also receive 10M from GSK. So we should add it to the current cash balance.

I can't help thinking that the sells are made up more of private investors and the buys with more institutions. Perhaps my analysis is not sufficiently scientific for others?

I am surprised the rise has been as small today but I have a view the sp is set for a rally off a low level. More to come tomorrow I feel..

More good news - perhaps the corner has finally been turned?

LONDON (AFX) - Skyepharma PLC said the US Food and Drug Administration ('FDA') has approved Triglide, its novel formulation of fenofibrate.

This approval will trigger a 15 mln usd milestone payment from partner First Horizon Pharmaceutical Corporation, Skyepharma said.

Skyepharma granted First Horizon exclusive US marketing and distribution rights in May 2004 for a cardiovascular product, now identified as fenofibrate IDD-P. Under this agreement, SkyePharma will receive up to 50 mln usd in milestone payments, 30 mln of which are sales-based milestone payments.

In addition SkyePharma will receive 25 pct of First Horizon's net sales of the product. SkyePharma will also make a contribution of up to 5 mln usd to First Horizon's initial marketing expenses to establish the product.