.

if u had ur mail box open i dont mind telling you why.......

Still blue and up, on a market down day (as is FOGL).

Certainly interesting, must be some good things happening imo.

You spoke too soon.

Rig broke ??

BOP possibly, who knows, in the meantime an update on Darwin would be nice.

i could very easily be wrong, but the continued lack of enthusiasm for this stock indicates to me that there is no good news imminent ....... with that in mind, i have reduced my holding in fogl (i don't hold bor) to pretty minimal - that is to say, even if sp dropped to zero, there would not be excessively painful damage

cynic seems sensible to us.

Maybe they bank with RBS and the workers are all demanding their wages before they drill any further!

There was no point in buying FOGL in the first place then ??....up at close of day...and far more buys than sells for BOR as well.....could go either way....FOGL is the one to be in.....

Loads of buys going through....strange......any news ?.....

Very large buys gone through !...

What's the point in these wild cat outfits? Chance of success is usually exaggerated and most have less than a one in ten chance, better to put the money on a nag with nine other runners, theoretically the same odds of winning and with a bit of work, even better. Tadah

Chuckles,

When I see comments like yours, 'What's the point in these wild cat outfits? Chance of success is usually exaggerated and most have less than a one in ten chance', that to me says it all.
It is the 1 in 10 chance that we invest in, when we chance our money on these Wild Cat Outfits, as high risk hopefully equals high reward!
If we wanted more secure investing we would go for FTSE 100 type companies.

Any the actual point of these wild cat outfits, is that without them, very little oil would be found.
These outfits proceed the more secure, lower risk, profit companies.

Looks like an update might come out pre-AGM noting that the Stebbing results will be perhaps a couple more weeks before coming out - just a small delay, no bad news as far as I know.

Lets see. Will be time to buy some BOR if that is the update.

.

Borders and Southern AGM presentation today, link below.

http://www.bordersandsouthern.com/media/pdf/AGM2012.pdf

.

faldiz attended the AGM and these are his notes :



"..............AGM was very lively, with one or two people challenging the limited information coming from the company.

It's a point that has puzzled many of us, but to my mind the following points explain it:

- "how could [an oil major] make a hostile bid without knowing what we have"

- may want to bid for additional open licences

- Board hold about 60m shares between them [more than in any other FI explorer] - want to maximise value

The board is experienced, oil exploration is competitive - they want to keep competitive advantage.


I'm not going to try to reproduce all of the technical detail (there was quite a lot) - hopefully Gramacho and others will fill in, but what I will to is give some impressions:

As to what they have: Darwin (east + west) is 1.88 TCF gas minimum, 2.5 best, 2.88 max.

liquid content: board would not be drawn at this stage, but a chap who has consulted for both BOR and now FOGL was willing in conversation to put it at 50m to 150m barrels per TCF, but most likely around 80-100. which gives us around 200m barrells most likely but range 100 to 420. Commercial needs to be 'in the hundreds" (Obee).

--> my view is it will be commercial. Full analysis 10 weeks from 18th of June, but some results, eg liquids content sooner - perhaps a few weeks.


Some revealing comments

- there will be another BOR campaign, it will be 5+ wells, mixture of appraisal and exploration. (Obee, response to question)

- "they will still be drilling in FI in 40 years time" (Dobson)

- BOR prospects "have best potential i've seen in 20 years in oil industry (mostly BHP)" (Fleming)

- Looking for rigs now

- would have first call on 5th slot, but at moment not certain/available

Burgess and Bute would be order 1bn barrells, if successful.

SP will rise, just wait for fund raising time.............."

BOR AGM notes from "TheFlyingMule".......

......Good evening all. Here is my ‘summary’ of the AGM today. It’s a bit in depth but I hope it’s of some use. I do have a recording of it, which I will try to upload when I get more time but these are my thoughts on the morning’s events. I’ve reproduced my notes as best I can, though I can’t guarantee the accuracy and there are others that are far more qualified than me to comment on the technical aspects but, again, I hope it provides at least a flavour of the meeting.

An excellent day all told. I’d recommend going to the AGMs of these companies – the opportunity for access to the BOD of multi million pound companies doesn’t come along very often!

I imagine there were around 50 shareholders there (I think last year’s was 15 or so?) as well as various analysts, PR people and the BOD of course. The meeting started at 10:00 and went on for nearly an hour and a half, which left just half an hour for further questions on the sidelines before everyone was ushered out before the next corporate do commenced.

Harry Dobson (HD; Chairman) kicked things off with the resolutions and they were all duly passed unanimously with a show of hands, including amusing witterings from HD proposing himself (I’m not sure Mr. Kozel will get the same reception for the remuneration resolution at GKP’s AGM in a few weeks..!).

That wrapped up swiftly and Howard Obee (HO; CEO) then launched into the AGM presentation. This wasn’t the same presentation as is now on the website – more on that later – but he talked us through it with questions from the floor as we went along.

HD emphasised at the beginning that there would be no discussion about Stebbing. He initially said it was ‘tight’ – my first thought was ‘oh no, not another DESaster with their tight sands at Rachel’. Then I thought he meant time was tight, as in there have been delays and, finally, with a request for clarification from the floor later on, he confirmed that ‘tight’ meant there was essentially a communications blackout regarding Stebbing! Drilling continues…

Anyway, on with the show.

Darwin:

- The numbers given were for Darwin East and West. Shallow marine environment in the lower cretaceous.

- Condensate samples were shipped back to the UK. It isn’t permissible to fly the samples on commercial flights so they could either spend several hundred thousand dollars chartering an aircraft or they could sent it by ship, which they obviously have done and it took four weeks to arrive.

- The geological results were extremely close to prognosis with the top of the reservoir predicted to within one metre – not bad for rank wildcat drilling eh?! [Over the 4,800 metres, that’s an error of 0.02%!!]

- Condensate value depends on its content. They BOD would not be drawn on ‘possibilities’ but their overall enthusiasm would suggest they are confident.

- Gas Initially In Place figures were given (Min 1.88TCF, Most Likely 2.44, Max 2.88). Liquids content is subject to on-going analysis. 10 weeks from 18th June.

- The TD of the drill ended up in water bearing sands. They felt there is a possibility of more sands beneath the water but seeing as they already had a valuable condensate find, they were content to leave that for another day. [I suspect they were wary of any more cost overruns and opted for prudence]

- Delays were caused by problems with the rig itself and also due to taking a long time to drill through some of the rock formations. Extra casing needed to be set to stabilise the hole. Rank wildcatting will always be a laborious process so not unexpected imo.

- Part of the extra time to drill through the rock was due to using water based drilling mud rather than oil based mud. It’s more environmentally friendly to use water but doesn’t perform as well it seems!

- Two thirds of the $40 million cost overruns were related to the other supply costs of hiring a rig.

- We were treated to the logs of Darwin; this information, along with the seismic slides, is not in the presentation on the website. I would love to pore over them in more detail rather than craning my neck at the slides from a distance but I’m sure Gramacho (delighted to put a face to the name at last but disappointed about the lack of elbow pads!) will be able to provide some colour. Without giving too much away, HO seemed quietly confident when discussing the gas readings.

- MDT gave the Gas-condensate gradient information, which told them of the condensate.

- The source rock wasn’t penetrated. HO believes that is still below where they drilled Darwin. Geochemistry testing of the cuttings to come in the next few weeks which may help answer whether the condensate was a result of the quality of the original source rock or whether it was a function of the thermal and migration history of the hydrocarbons that were generated. That will then aid prediction of distribution of oil, gas and condensate in the region.




Rig:

- Excellent team on board the LE. Having a high spec rig is all good and well but if there aren’t the appropriate operators, it’s potential won’t be realised. Fortunately there are excellent crews on the rig!

- The rig itself is performing very well. A few days ago there were 18/19m waves and it carried on drilling.

- Environmental conditions are less harsh than expected. Originally, it was thought they would be similar to those west of the Shetlands. It seems conditions are more benign than there. This is in part due to the southern tip of South America essentially acting as a windbreak to the large weather systems that come in from the west from the Pacific and protects the Islands from the worst conditions as the fetch distance is greatly reduced. [nice to know Argentina still helping out, even if they don’t want to ]

- BOR own the rig contract. When it was asked whether there would be a fifth well in this current campaign, HO said it was a possibility but it would depend on timings as it is due to go to Scandinavia after finishing in the Falklands. [my impression was they weren’t particularly keen on drilling another well; they have enough on their plate and they don’t want to be rushed into something just for the sake of it.]



Future Campaigns:

- Appraisal of Darwin should be relatively straightforward.

- The next campaign will have “a lot more wells.” Exploration will take place alongside the
appraisals and would be at least 5 wells. Rig availability the key issue.

- Open acreage will be of interest to them eventually – hence the relatively hush-hush nature of
their communications strategy.

- 3D; both new and re-processing existing. They were absolutely delighted with the ‘superb’ data and that was what put Darwin on the map, so to speak.

- Currently tendering for 3D seismic with the aim of shooting it in the southern hemisphere summer. Currently seems to be a good availability of seismic boats.




Prospects:

- Next 3D to be shot to the north of Darwin.

- Covington is a tilted fault block to the north of Darwin but only on 2D. This is a priority. It looks uncannily similar to how Darwin did on 2D. They then got the 3D and the rest is history! HO optimistic Covington will look similar to Darwin with the 3D.

- Deeper targets of Stokes and Sullivan.

- All prospects are a similar age and, with the positive result of Darwin, reduces their risk profiles compared with six months ago.

- Burgess and Bute fan systems ‘down the slope’ in the deeper marine environment. As a rough indication, Bute could be 1 billion barrels for that sized fan.

- Prospect inventory with resource estimates to come when they re-evaluate, including other new leads.

- Darwin smallest prospect in terms of area (with 2.5TCF of gas).




Funding:

- Lots of options, especially thanks to having 100% of their acreage.

- HD was extremely confident of getting any $$$ that may be required. He was fairly tight lipped but felt with the masses of top quality data they have, they wouldn’t have any trouble getting funds when needed.




Communication Strategy:

- It was inferred the BOD weren’t working in the best interest of shareholders by being so averse to publishing detailed information. HD was reasonably unimpressed with this suggestion I think. Commercially sensitive information is the key; it’s an excellent bargaining chip and should stop a hostile takeover.

- Bulletin boards were discussed. iii called HO and said the site had had 23,000 hits leading up to Darwin results.

- HD didn’t like bulletin boards as he felt they encouraged rumours with ramping/de-ramping etc. [Though, of course, if they were to release more information, there would probably be less speculation...]

- Concerning relations with the Falklands Government, HO said they had excellent relations with them and found them to be extremely helpful as and when they required. When asked if he thought FIG may improve royalty terms to encourage development of Darwin if the condensate results weren’t so promising, he thought it unlikely seeing as the terms are already extremely favourable. He was more concerned they may shift the royalty rates up now they’ve found something!




My 2p Worth:

BOD very much in this for the long term with HD stating this will see him out until the end of his days. They do have incentives, in the form of 60-70 million shares between them.

Technically, I think they’ve done a fantastic job. Their prospect inventory looks very interesting and they are keen to tick all the boxes in a timely and appropriate fashion. They will not be coerced into publishing data just for the sake of it. [this largely related to a question regarding the condensate yield. Gramacho very kindly offered his prediction, which I’m sure he’ll come to later]

HD believes the market doesn’t understand the significance of Darwin.

On a personal note, I like to see a strong technical side to the company and I have to say I was very impressed with the technical story at BOR. They seem to be going about things in the right way, which, given time, will reward patient investors.

I would say they could work on marketing the company better. Yes, they have a long term view but a higher share price doesn’t do anyone any harm!

That’s all for now; a long but very worthwhile day.

GLA,

TFM............

the market says that good news is increasingly unlikely

GKP has fallen from 450p to 160p in the past couple of months - therefore the market is saying GKP is a bad stock and bad news is coming ?

Is this the way it all works cynic ? LOL


They are still 7 to 14 days from news IMO - which means there will not be spikes in the share price until quite a few days later, when results near.