Anybody else out there interested in these?

2002 Results are due in April, and they are expected to show a maiden profit.
Last week I opened a small speculative long (spreadbet), but I am looking to add to this position a lot more if we get any sort of resolution over Iraq crisis before the results which should spark a broad market rally from which SKP could really benefit and have a strong run-up.

DYOR etc.


Here is a recent research note from Merrill Lynch (they estimate 0.25p EPS for 2002):


Merrill Lynch FlashNote

7 February 2003

SkyePharma

Newsflow Set To Continue BUY

Reason for Report: Company Update

EPS (Dec): 2001A -1.19p; 2002E 0.25p; 2003E 2.13p
P/E (Dec): 2001A NM; 2002E 180.0x; 2003E 21.1x

Michael Ashton, CEO SkyePharma, gave an upbeat and informative presentation today.

Depomorphine appears on track for US submission in June 03. The two pivotal trials (hip and lower abdominal surgery) have been concluded. To date, the results appear encouraging. Management believe that safety (eg respiratory depression and nausea) is not an issue for the drug.The company is also conducting an additional trial in C section patients which is completing enrollment and should be included in the European submission for Depomorphine later this year. We expect the pivotal trial data for Depomorphine to be presented at the American Society of Clinical Anaesthesiologists in October 2003.

Paxil CR continues to grow (accounting for c.26% of total Paxil scrips in the US). 50% of these Paxil CR scrips are repeat and Paxil CR accounts for c.7% of the total SSRI antidepressant market in the US. Paxil CR is already filed for pre-menstrual dysphoria disorder (PMDD). However, GSK also plans to submit the intermittent treatment of PMDD later this year.

SKP also confirmed that Quintiles plans to present new data for Solaraze at the American Society of Dermatology in March. SKP believes that Solaraze is making in-roads into the actinic keratosis market and appears to be taking market share from Ephedrex (5-FU). Clinical trials in Australia are on track, with SKP planning to submit Solaraze to the Australian regulatory authorities in 2004 (second largest market opportunity after the US).

Enzon has already started to market DepoCyt in the US and SKP expects to see wider usage of the drug by key oncologists in the next few months. Phase IV studies for the neoplastic meningitis indication are on track, with an FDA Advisory Committee meeting (ODAC) scheduled next month.

Overall, we expect the newsflow for SKP to continue and reiterate our BUY recommendation with a price objective of 80p (based on applying the speciality pharma multiple to our 06E EPS of 14p and discounting back agressively at 30% p.a.). Risks to the stock include the general risk of drug development delay and product approval failure.

Pachandl well held you should be good at poker with that sort of decision making.

Cheers DD. Fund - presumably you are waiting for a pull-back before committing? Having said that the odds do not favour the sp going lower than 54p.

Pach

Have just bought at 54.5p - amazed that i got that price - almost slightly cautious that the rise so far has been relatively small.

Analysts meeting later and some positive press ahead. Only concern in the short term is the cash position looks a bit tight depending on the timing of some of the milestone payments due and with Bonds to be redeemed in June.

Ashton currently on CNBC (channel 510 on sky)

From Ashton:

D3 is a done deal and he expects revenue in excess of 1bn
deal is still company transforming
very bullish on the success of the paxil negotiations


Ironic - as he was presenting they have the share price at the top of the screen at 54.25p with DAY LOW flashing - lets hope that this is still true at 4.30pm

Looking good then fundy.

Thanks Fund - it looks like Ashton lives another day.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh60376_2005-04-28_08-23-29_l28455207_newsml

BTW- Whatever SKP was receiving from GSK will be 33% increased from the 4th March. That's next week though.
SKP will also receive 10M from GSK. So we should add it to the current cash balance.

I can't help thinking that the sells are made up more of private investors and the buys with more institutions. Perhaps my analysis is not sufficiently scientific for others?

I am surprised the rise has been as small today but I have a view the sp is set for a rally off a low level. More to come tomorrow I feel..

More good news - perhaps the corner has finally been turned?

LONDON (AFX) - Skyepharma PLC said the US Food and Drug Administration ('FDA') has approved Triglide, its novel formulation of fenofibrate.

This approval will trigger a 15 mln usd milestone payment from partner First Horizon Pharmaceutical Corporation, Skyepharma said.

Skyepharma granted First Horizon exclusive US marketing and distribution rights in May 2004 for a cardiovascular product, now identified as fenofibrate IDD-P. Under this agreement, SkyePharma will receive up to 50 mln usd in milestone payments, 30 mln of which are sales-based milestone payments.

In addition SkyePharma will receive 25 pct of First Horizon's net sales of the product. SkyePharma will also make a contribution of up to 5 mln usd to First Horizon's initial marketing expenses to establish the product.

Queen1

Agreed, another piece in the jigsaw confirmed. Still the price is being held back, assume there must still be an overhang. This should really take off when the D3 is finally signed and announced

Who is selling? Why?

HT - on adv it seems that it was known about a week ago that there was a large stock overhang which needed to be cleared before sp would move northwards.

Pach

thinking aloud..

im assuming that the overhang relates to the RNS from DKW that they had increased their holding from market making activity and it is these shares that are being released into the market. alternatively it could be standard life finally unwinding their position or Dr G again???

Your guess is probably better than mine! By the way, this afternoon's Citywire Verdict states (re rns): "This is not one of these blockbuster drug stories that send share prices spiralling up one day and plummeting the next. But it should help SkyePharma shares move nearer the 70.25p highs they hit in December"

Well they're going a funny way about it as the sp is now down on the day! Thank goodness it wasn't bad news - no knowing what may have happened then!

This is not a good share to be involved in and you may well be in for some bad news shortly. My advice is to sell up ASAP!!!

Care to share any more info or just going to post a blatant deramp?

BPL

Just checked to validate youre type of post and came across this on the ramper/deramper thread:



Kivver - 15 May'05 - 10:54 - 35 of 35


Watch out for pro/informer/mrsmoneypenny/wa145te/bradpittlookalike and lots of other names, buzz lightyear/helen/informtionboard/ etc on other sites. He hasn't the guts or bottle to stick to one name and loves talking to himself (sad man). Last warning i have nothing else to say about this poster he is well and truly squelched!!


So im guessing your short rather than meaning well to help us all out.

So whats the bad news?

Forward pipeline
Recent institutional buying
Current buying at 54p which the price is being held at
The announcement of the flutiform deal
something else????