http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

http://soundcloud.com/grumbleguts/2794804-1


Sam Moody and Dave Bodecott host a Teleconference and Q&A session post flow test results.

Wait for the Q&A at the end.

Markymar,

Excellent conference call. Both came over as very genuine and gave as open answers as possible.

I have pinched the link for a competitors site as it is in the open domain, but thanks for finding it and posting here.

Regards Greek.

Should be a blue day tom,thought i was the only one here Greek.

From 4.5km to 4.1km.........we have a good board there...

Chatham Fan its had a hair cut a few times now

Marky
You're not alone - here and watching closely.

Just spotted this and have difficulty understanding the last paragraph. Perhaps the next set of results will put the doubters to the sword - in the meantime I could do without the diurnal variation!


LONDON (ShareCast) - Rockhopper Exploration, the firm hunting for oil off the coast of the Falkland Islands, has drilled a third appraisal well on the so-called Sea Lion feature on the south Atlantic sea bed.

Rockhopper has attracted significant attention in the past year after claiming it had discovered commercially viable levels of oil in its 100% owned exploration area.

It will be at least 38 days before we discover the results of the latest drilling effort but investors are clearly wary of Rockhoppers claims, with the share price down 1.1% in early trading today and 15% on the month.BS

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk/pdf/RPS_Rockhopper_CPR_2009.pdf

Page 43 looks like we could be going for a double .......live oil found in 14/10-1 so it had a hair cut now it looks like we are going in the centre 4.1km...

The Chatham fan, which is a northsouth
prograding system characterised by elongate
channel-attached lobes, appears to have been
tested at its edge by the second Shell well
(14/10-1). A 1m thick sand was encountered
in this well having very good C1 to C5
hydrocarbon shows. The fan appears to
thicken away from the well into an area of
very bright seismic amplitudes. This suggests
that commercially viable accumulations of
hydrocarbons could be present in the brighter
areas of the fan which have not yet been
tested. These areas will be further investigated
for prospectivity during future technical work.

Hi Avsec,

Investors are indeed wary of Rockhoppers claims, as is shown by the share price.
I for one am very confident in where this is heading, but still wary enough not to increase my holdings.
I have learned over the last 10 years or so of investing in the markets that things can and do go wrong, even in what I would consider as good a bet as Rockhopper.
I also feel that many who have a narrower risk policy than myself and have RKH on their radar, are holding back for more solid evidence of oil amounts.
They may not make as much profit as those of us who were in early, but obviously if the wheel does come off, they won't loose as much either.
Personally I see the last paragraph as 'normal' not with any suspicion.

Regarding the conference call posted by Markymar, the only hard figures mentioned were to do with the well tests already carried out. Both Sam Moody and Dave Bodecott were quite rightly very careful to say nothing that they could not prove, although they did give a couple of opinions, which they were also very careful to quantify that it was an opinion and that they had found nothing to contradict said opinions.

regards Greek.

The way the markets are playing out, I expect to see the rock back down at 160ish before we see 300p.
No doubt it will come good in the log run but with First Oil not until 2015 and no majors showing interest, this has plenty of ups and downs to come.

Hi AR,

Welcome, have not seen you post on here before.

My view.

We might see 160p, but the wheel would seriously have to come off big style, either with RKH itself, the world economy (very likely) or both.
I feel that without the 2 mentioned scenarios, we won't see 200p again. My reasoning being that before the sp reaches 200p, most would look on it as a great buying opportunity.
For myself, I am getting about 50% out of the market as I am very pessimistic re the EU situation.
The only shares I am retaining are those in companies that have the likelihood of suddenly shooting upward due to one company case opportunities, IE such as RKH, who if even when the P50 is proven will be worth plus 200p and more on their NAV alone, and the P figure could easily increase.

Too many punters are looking at the oil production route, and whilst my own view is that RKH should stay an explorer, selling discoveries on to the majors, I have little problem if they go down the production route.
Even then, whilst excepting that the production route is as you say not till 2015 at the earliest, that oil in the ground, when proven, is almost as good as cash in the bank.
All IMHO of course.

Regards Greek.

Hi Greek.
Been sat on the sidelines reading for ages, finally took the plunge to post.


I agree with pretty much everything you say with however the addition of in my point of view the potential value of oil in 2015.

The world seems to be trying to move away from fossil fuels albeit very slowly, If RKH were on the doorstep of First Oil as are for eg XEL, then I would value them at more than double todays SP, however 4 years is a long time to project a viability cost/value for FI Oils.

added to that the Euro fiasco, sovereign issues and the general state of the world markets and then throw in for good measure the massive oil finds coming out of Kurdestan and I can see long term oil price falling back to the $65 range.

Will Sealion still be viable at those prices?

I have a very small holding of RKH, having moved the bulk of my portfolio into XEL.

All in my opinion and I hope that anyone brave enough to invest gets rewarded

regards

AustrianRetreats

RKH is indeed somewhat more risky than XEL, which itself is proving a difficult stock

i also thoroughly concur that the eurozone situation is horribly scary and i'm not at all sure how that will pan out, though it is certain there will be at least some interim fudge

however, though the world will be forced to move away from fossil fuels over time, that is a very long way off and will only be precipitated by the declining supply of same, which similarly implies at least a relatively high price
i would therefore doubt very much that crude will fall back to $65, not least because the major oil-producing countries will not allow it to

Cynic, With oil in the ground/sea and proved reserves would you think oil shares will fair well with the world problems. The world needs oil.

Exactly...far too longterm view.....with this latest well, perhaps the market will react the other way marking up the stock when most people including myself just expect the status quo......down, down..drilling...deeper and down...sorry..could not resist it..

pipedream -yes, except that is a relative term as if world stock markets collapse, oilies, especially the minnows will get annihilated

Go overweight with gold stock's , that's my advice

Lets hope the markets hold for the time being.

At the worst, if banks and currency was to collapse. Money is worth ------. Gold is not even safe in my thoughts, short term yes.

Hi there cynic

I think the best argument for "uncertainty in the future" would be

Would you have predicted 4 months ago that Germany would close down ALL its nuclear power stations by mid to end 2012 and that many other countries would follow suit. I know I wouldn't have.

Regarding cost oil, I predict that the rush to Hybrids and electric transport throughout the rich west countries will largely reduce the need for the black stuff and create a situation whereby the main use will be industrial and the poorer continents that will still run petrol engines as we are doing now.

I personally am looking at buying 2 new cars that run on electric and gas within the next 6 months or so. I will be selling my current cars at the same time.

A reduction in demand always leads to an eventual reduction in price.

regards

John

I agree that RKH are still a minnow, but I doubt they would become annihilated. If push came to shove it would become a target for one of the majors, and with the FI prospects looking good, it could start a bidding war.
Oil use will be around for many a year and no matter how many knew finds there are, supply will never keep up (long term) with demand.