.

1

2

3

4

5

Sorry, sod the Penguins, lets get that oil...... !


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nikolas-kozloff/wikileaks-from-south-atla_b_804296.html?ir=Green

..........Needless to say, it is difficult to see how the longstanding territorial dispute between Britain and Argentina over the Falklands, which is now being exacerbated by oil rivalry, will increase environmental protection for local penguins. If the WikiLeaks cables are any indication, Britain is determined to get at offshore oil, even if that means antagonizing the environmental community. Such narrow mindedness is certainly deplorable, but perhaps not too surprising given that up to 60 billion barrels of oil may lie near the Falklands. ..........

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/sharewatch/small-talk-great-eastern-energy-taps-into-indias-growth-2180418.html


Small Talk: by Nikhil Kumar

Monday, 10 January 2011


.........Rockhopper set to scale new heights

Sticking with the oil and gas theme, take a look at Rockhopper Exploration, the oil prospector focused on the Falklands Islands, which enjoyed quite a run over the past 12 months. Despite some uninspiring news in October, when Rockhopper warned it lacked data for a planned technical report to support its initial resource estimate at its closely followed discovery at the Sea Lion well, the stock was up nearly 500 per cent over 2010.

Impressive as that is, Panmure Gordon reckons that Rockhopper could rally even higher this year. In a round-up of its top picks issued late last week, it reiterated its 530p target price, well above the current share price of 373p, and named the company as its top choice in the oil exploration and production sector. Panmure reckons there should be an additional upside at Sea Lion, pointing out that as the initial well threw up thicker sands than expected, "the company would want to see if this is repeated across the rest of the prospect, [thus] allowing an increase in volumes". The investment bank also highlights Rockhopper's potential to expand the discovery to the south, pointing out that it is fully funded and boasts some attractive exploration opportunities.

"Having proved that the play works with Sea Lion, the company could acquire additional three-dimensional data on its acreage. This should identify additional prospects that can be drilled in the current campaign, adding significant shareholder value," Panmure explained. "Should Sea Lion prove to be commercial, smaller discoveries could be inexpensively tied into any infrastructure that is put into place." Investors will no doubt have their fingers crossed for further gains..............

12/01/11 FLASH: Desire Petroleum started with hold rating at Jefferies, target price 40p

12/01/11 FLASH: Falkland Oil started with buy rating at Jefferies, target price 225p

12/01/11 FLASH: Rockhopper started with hold rating at Jefferies, target price 435p

12/01/11 FLASH: Argos Resources started with buy rating at Jefferies, target price 75p

Exploration well spuds :

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201101140700054605Z


38 days drill time.

I would expect TD in about 30 days, so perhaps news then.

However, as they are drilling 2 fans, they might give us news after the first fan and they might not.

Will keep th excitement level going :)

Oh good - another ducking thread.

Had to, sadly markymar is being an idiot and being abusive to me, so I might soon have to add him to the "squelch" list, which then makes any threads started by him useless.

So, had to start a new one.

grow up you child!!

Sorry, sod the Penguins, lets get that oil...... !


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nikolas-kozloff/wikileaks-from-south-atla_b_804296.html?ir=Green

..........Needless to say, it is difficult to see how the longstanding territorial dispute between Britain and Argentina over the Falklands, which is now being exacerbated by oil rivalry, will increase environmental protection for local penguins. If the WikiLeaks cables are any indication, Britain is determined to get at offshore oil, even if that means antagonizing the environmental community. Such narrow mindedness is certainly deplorable, but perhaps not too surprising given that up to 60 billion barrels of oil may lie near the Falklands. ..........

For those wondering why RKH have not got into the new rig contract yet, it appears Arcadia not going ahead with their 2 slots has allowed RKH to take them and therefore the rig is still under the old contract for perhaps another 5 months.

As explained below, excuse the typo in there.... :)





.

Evolution Securities prefers Rockhopper Exploration and Argos Resources (LON:ARG) to Desire and so do I :)


http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/24315/desire-shares-drop-another-20-pct-after-latest-falklands-duster-24315.html

Desire shares drop another 20 pct after latest Falklands duster

Tuesday, January 04, 2011 by Jamie Ashcroft

Desire Petroleum (LON:DES) shares slumped a further 20 percent this morning with yet another failed exploration well being plugged and abandoned.

This morning it revealed that its latest well in the Falklands failed to locate oil or gas in the Dawn prospect, the wells second target.

The 25/5-1 well was designed to test two targets - Dawn and Jacinta - in the North Falkland basin. Last week Desire told investors that the well did not find any hydrocarbons in the Jacinta prospect.

This latest disappointment follows the dour news last month that the companys Rachel North well would also be abandoned.

Desire will now await the results of its seismic survey being carried out in partnership with Rockhopper, which also plans to drill the next two wells in the basin. Later, the rig will return to Desire for the last drilling slot in the current exploration campaign.

David Hart, oil and gas analyst at Westhouse Securities, downgraded his view on Desire in the wake of this mornings announcement.

The analyst cut his rating to hold and reduced his price target to 40 pence - after previously rating the stock an accumulate.

This is further unfortunate news for Desire, following the earlier disappointment with the Rachel prospect and Jacinta just before year end, Hart said in a note to clients.

He added: The ongoing 3D seismic programme may expand this portfolio of prospects but drilling more than one additional well is likely to require further financing as well.

Looking ahead, we will adjust the risk associated with drilling Desires next well based on the results from Rockhoppers (LON:RKH) upcoming wells and the results of the new seismic programme.

Evolution Securities prefers Rockhopper Exploration and Argos Resources (LON:ARG) to Desire.

And the broker pointed out: Desire has sufficient funding for one last well in the northern part of the basin, however, we remain cautious given the track record of well results and acreage and prefer Rockhopper and Argos,

Evolution rates both Rockhopper and Argos buy, with price targets of 400 and 52 pence respectively.

This is the second well in the southern part of the North Falkland Basin and neither has provided much encouragement for the future prospectivity of this area, Evo added.

Until we gain further information on Desires final drilling target we remain cautious on the shares which will, in the near term, be driven by drilling results from Rockhopper.

The Desire share price has been decimated since a shock change in fortune in early December - with the company prematurely proclaiming a new oil discovery when in fact the prospect was water bearing. On the December 6 the stock more than halved in value as it fell from 133.25 to 67.25 pence in one session.

Subsequently the Dawn/ Jaquinta well has led to yet more despair for investors, with the stock falling to 42.5 pence and then 34.5 pence in the wake of the 25/5-1 drilling results.

It has not all been doom and gloom in the Falklands though. The new oil frontier provided one of the AIM markets biggest stories in 2010, with many investors riding the white-knuckle rollercoaster ride.

Rockhopper Explorations Sea Lion discovery gave investors the stand-out result, as it confirmed what investors had long hoped for, however all the other wells drilled in 2010 failed to match it.

Whilst we now know that there is oil beneath the inhospitable waters surrounding the Falkland Islands, there is still much to do in 2011.

Looking back it is clear that 2010 was a hit and miss year in the Falklands. Overall three of the five AIM-listed explorers were actively exploring the Falklands, and between them drilled seven holes and one sidetrack.

Rockhopper and Desire did most of the work, with their operations in the North Falkland Basin taking centre stage. In total the two firms have now drilled six between them.

Meanwhile in the South Basin, Falklands Oil & Gas (LON:FOGL) shares were hit in July after the Toroa well came up dry in July.

Of all the wells drilled only the Sea Lion found potentially commercial quantities of oil.

The New Year will see the groups explore with more than just the drill bit. Rockhopper, Desire and AIM newcomer Argos Resources (LON:ARG) are set to open up a whole catalogue of new targets with a massive seismic programme in the early part of the year.

Back in October the groups agreed to two separate seismic programmes, one between Desire and Rockhopper and another between Argos and Rockhopper.

The first of the programmes got started on 20 December, as the Polarcus Nadia3D seismic vessel arrived in the waters around the islands.

The second programme, which will use the Polarcus Asima vessel, will follow shortly.

Results are expected in early spring for both programmes.

Lets hope 2011 proves a more fruitful year for the companies drilling in the South Atlantic and also for the investors who have staked a lot of money on their success.

As its my choice for the 2011 competition over on TMF

Here is the link to the write up (its also in the header for ease of finding).

http://boards.fool.co.uk/nfsc-2011-rockhopper-write-up-rkh-12137962.aspx

.

markymar, ever since I called Dawn/Jacinta perfectly correct, you got it wrong and lost loads of money you have been abusive to me and being an idiot.

I see its not stopping.

So now I shall "squelch" you so do not bother writing anything to me again, as I will not be able to read it, perhaps you can understand that ?

From the Sector Watcher today (FT Alphaville) , it should be noted that they allow nothing for the S2 fan and so if that comes in as well, expect valuations to go wild....


..........."Rockhopper has spudded the next well on its PL032 licence in the North Falkland Basin, with the 14/10-3 well located 8 kilometres west of the Sea Lion discovery. The well, located outside the Sea Lion Discovery Area, will appraise the northern lobe of the Sea Lion structure, hence it should not be considered quite as high risk as a pure exploration well Id imagine the chance of success is around 1 in 2 to 1 in 3. Difficult to say what a successful well would do to reserves estimates on the overall Sea Lion structure although with a current P10 case of over 600 million barrels of oil against a P50 case of around 170 million barrels there is clearly enormous upside.

The well should take around 5 weeks to drill and will be followed by 14/10-4, designed to test the southerly extension of the field. Interestingly, if the southerly extension is successful, the structure could extend about 1 kilometre into Desire Petroleums acreage in the adjacent licence. Following the two wells, the Ocean Guardian rig will probably revert to Desire for its final well.

Thereafter RKH has signed up the rig for three firm wells and five contingent, designed to appraise Sea Lion and test further exploration prospects, so it will be a busy year for the group. Our current NAV on RKH is 494p/share, although this could be deemed conservative as it assumes only the base case reserves estimate of 170 million barrels and a long-term oil price of $70/barrel. On the basis of a successful P10 case, this valuation would likely more han treble.

RKH remains the best way to play the Falklands exploration province.........

Pretty similar picture every day now, dip down in the morning and early afternoon and recovery end of the day.